The Blitz Week 9: NFC Edition
All of the most important utilization metrics, takeaways, and outlooks for every fantasy-relevant player in the NFC.
I didn’t mean for it to be, but last week’s intro sure proved to be prescient. I talked a lot about variance last week in regards to how it can flip things upside down, and also in regards to how we need to learn to cut through it. Well, as you now know if you watched any football last week, everything got flipped on its head. I can’t remember another week where everything went so wrong. It almost felt like a slap in the face to all of the research and work we’ve put in to accurately forecast player performance.
Here’s the thing — weekly variance like this is unavoidable. It usually presents itself with things going nothing like expected with a few teams. Last week it just happened to be a rare exception where it seemed like crazy, bad for fantasy football sh*t was happening with every single team. The way we move forward is to dissect each individual team in order to examine whether or not there are worthwhile takeaways amidst the chaos. In some cases, it’s genuinely better to pretend that this week never happened, because the things that happened will never happen again. In others, there are clues that indicate that we may see some of the unfortunate things that happened last week pop up again.
Overall, my message is that you shouldn’t let this discourage you. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t really pissed off for most of the day yesterday, but these weeks happen in football, they just do, and the best thing we can do is continue to trust in our process.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona was without both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in this one and still came away with a 31-17 win over the division-rival 49ers. As they always do, the Cardinals pounded the rock after building a lead, which led to a 42.7% pass rate. This remains a run-first team.
Colt McCoy (9.6 YPA) somehow threw for 249 yards and a 1:0 TD/INT with a microscopic 3.3 aDOT… otherwise known as the Jimmy G special. The team was wise to make everything happen after the catch, and it served them well. Kyler Murray should be back for Week 10, though he’s not exactly an elite fantasy option anymore due to the lack of rushing production.
James Conner (77% snaps, 26 touches, 5 targets) put together a 21/96/2 rushing line and a 5/77/1 receiving line in a monster 39.3 PPR point performance after Chase Edmonds exited with a high ankle sprain. Edmonds is done for at least a month, and Conner is a locked-in RB1 going forward. I still don’t think Conner is particularly good at football, but that doesn’t matter when you get 25+ high-value touches in a high-powered offense.
There are still sickos out there who will try and tell you that Eno Benjamin is a good running back, but he’s not. I don’t mind picking up Benjamin as a short-term handcuff play, but he’s not going to have standalone value.
With both DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green out, Christian Kirk (6/91/0, 23% target share, 9.3 aDOT) and Rondale Moore (5/25/0, 19% target share, -1.0 aDOT) carried the load. Hopkins and Green are both likely to play in Week 10 however, so Kirk and Moore will fall right back into the WR4/5 range.
Zach Ertz (3/27/0, 80% snaps, 19% target share, 0.6 aDOT) didn’t do much, but I don’t care about the box score with Colt McCoy at quarterback. What I do care about is the 80 percent snap rate, as it appears that Ertz is fully integrated at this point… he’s a rock-solid TE2.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta played along with the theme of Week 9 and upset the Saints on the road, beating them 27-25 in a thriller that wasn’t exactly pleasing to watch. They remained balanced (56.1% pass rate) in the neutral script and I expect them to continue that trend with a small deviation towards the run/pass depending on the situation.
Matt Ryan (11.4 YPA) absolutely diced up a solid Saints defense for 343 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT while remarkably adding a rushing score. The last two weeks perfectly encapsulate the Matty Ice experience. One week he’s an MVP and the next he looks like it’s time to retire. Ryan is an okay QB2, but he’s tough to project weekly. I’m fine starting him in plus matchups, but that’s about it.
Arthur Smith wised up a little bit and featured Cordarrelle Patterson (56% snaps, 15 touches, 6 targets) as a receiver after a pathetic coaching display last week. Patterson eviscerated New Orleans for a 6/126/0 receiving line in the game while doing nothing on the ground (9/10/0) against arguably the NFL’s best run defense. C-Patt is a locked-in RB2 as Atlanta’s top skill-position weapon outside of Kyle Pitts.
Smith didn’t wise up entirely, as he still felt the need to give Mike Davis (56% snaps, 10 touches, 2 targets) nine carries, which of course turned into just 13 yards (1.4 YPC). Davis is likely going to see 10-12 touches most weeks, but he’s too inefficient to do anything with them. Davis isn’t even an RB3 anymore in my eyes, and I now have him as just a low-upside RB4.
Kyle Pitts (3/62/0, 23% target share, 10.9 aDOT) had a solid game in a really tough matchup, and he could’ve had a better game as he dropped an easy 30-yard completion early on. Pitts is my TE5 overall behind Kelce/Waller/Kittle/Andrews in that order, and he should be a major focal point in this offense all year long.
Calvin Ridley is out for at least two more games as he continues to deal with mental health issues.
Russell Gage (7/64/0, 27% target share, 8.1 aDOT) is another extremely inefficient player, but he does have some target equity in Atlanta right now. I guess you can start him as a WR5 in PPR, but I certainly wouldn’t be thrilled about it.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is a flat-out embarrassment on offense right now, and they lost 24-6 to New England in Week 9. The Panthers are averaging an NFL-worst 9.3 PPG in their last three. Now that Sam Darnold has been shelved with a shoulder injury, we’ll have to wait and see what the run/pass splits look like with PJ Walker under center. I expect a lot of CMC runs and dump-offs.
Sam Darnold (5.2 YPA) is one of the worst NFL quarterbacks I’ve ever seen, and he threw for just 172 yards and a 0:3 TD/INT in this game. Throwing three picks with a 5.5 aDOT is impressively bad. Darnold has a fracture in his shoulder and will be out for some time, and while I never wish injury on anyone, this offense will likely be better off without him.
We have a very limited sample size in terms of what we’ve seen from PJ Walker in the NFL, but he targeted receivers extremely heavily in limited action. It’s possible that everyone here benefits from this change, but it’s also possible that Walker is just as bad.
The bright spot here is Christian McCaffery (49% snaps, 18 touches, 5 targets), who returned from yet another hamstring injury to effortlessly record 106 total yards despite a limited workload. CMC should be getting 20-25 touches per game starting in Week 10, and he’s a top-three RB1 with health concerns.
I’ll save you the trouble and just say that no Panthers pass catcher did anything of note due to Sam Darnold’s incompetence. If you’re feeling bold, I wouldn’t mind buying low on D.J. Moore and/or Robby Anderson… Walker almost can’t be any worse than Darnold.