The Blitz Week 9: AFC Edition
All of the most important utilization metrics, takeaways, and outlooks for every fantasy-relevant player in the AFC.
I didn’t mean for it to be, but last week’s intro sure proved to be prescient. I talked a lot about variance last week in regards to how it can flip things upside down, and also in regards to how we need to learn to cut through it. Well, as you now know if you watched any football last week, everything got flipped on its head. I can’t remember another week where everything went so wrong. It almost felt like a slap in the face to all of the research and work we’ve put in to accurately forecast player performance.
Here’s the thing — weekly variance like this is unavoidable. It usually presents itself with things going nothing like expected with a few teams. Last week it just happened to be a rare exception where it seemed like crazy, bad for fantasy football sh*t was happening with every single team. The way we move forward is to dissect each individual team in order to examine whether or not there are worthwhile takeaways amidst the chaos. In some cases, it’s genuinely better to pretend that this week never happened, because the things that happened will never happen again. In others, there are clues that indicate that we may see some of the unfortunate things that happened last week pop up again.
Overall, my message is that you shouldn’t let this discourage you. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t really pissed off for most of the day yesterday, but these weeks happen in football, they just do, and the best thing we can do is continue to trust in our process.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore passed at a measly 49.4% rate that sends shivers down the spine, but don’t panic, this isn’t the same old Ravens from past years, this is still a pass-first offense. Baltimore ran this much because Minnesota couldn’t stop/diagnose read-option plays, and Lamar and Co. tore them up on the ground. Expect slightly pass-heavy approaches in neutral scripts going forward and wild swings towards the run (positive script) and pass (negative script) in games where one team jumps out to a big lead.
Lamar Jackson (6.5 YPA) was disappointingly mediocre as a passer coming off of the bye, throwing for 266 yards and a 3:2 TD/INT, but he did add a monster 21/120/0 rushing line. Lamar is a cheat code because he scored 33 fantasy points in a game where he didn’t play all that well… he remains a shoo-in top-five QB1.
Devonta Freeman (58% snaps, 15 touches, 3 targets) led the backfield committee with Le’Veon Bell (23% snaps, 11 touches, 0 targets) mixing in as well. The rushing environment is so good here that even someone as dusty as Freeman can have occasional solid fantasy performances, as he did last week when he accumulated 82 total yards and a touchdown. Freeman is a low upside RB3/flex who can be started most weeks, while Bell is still completely irrelevant.
Marquise Brown (9/116/0, 29% target share, 7.2 aDOT) has been the most underrated fantasy receiver in the NFL for some time now, but he’s making it impossible for people to ignore him for much longer. Brown’s line over his last 16 games (126 targets) is 83/1216/12… that’s how good he’s been. I’ve been ahead of the market on Hollywood since Week 1, and I want to stay that way, so I’m moving him all the way up into the high-end WR2 range alongside guys like Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Rashod Bateman (5/52/0, 66% snaps, 21% target share, 13.5 aDOT) continues to play a big role as Sammy Watkins was surprisingly inactive in this one, though he projects to be back on Thursday for Week 10. Bateman is a good player in a good offense, but until we see how things shake out with Watkins back, I don't want to get too invested. The rookie is a WR5 with more upside than most, and if he full-on steals Watkins’ job, he’s a WR4.
Mark Andrews (5/44/0, 79% snaps, 24% target share, 12.6 aDOT) continues to be extremely involved, as he was targeted 10 times while running a massive 39 routes. For him to fully reach his ceiling he needs Baltimore to stop running it relentlessly in the red zone, as Andrews has just one red zone target in his last three games, though he’s an elite TE1 regardless.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ loss to the Jaguars in which they scored exactly zero touchdowns was among the most shocking I’ve ever seen. Buffalo was arguably the super bowl favorite playing a team that has been a laughing stock… but Week 9 featured plenty of shock value and this was par for the course, believe it or not. On the bright side, we did see Buffalo throw at a massive 78.5% rate in the neutral script, which confirmed my suspicions from past weeks — this team just needed to be tested to start airing it out at will again.
Josh Allen (5.6 YPA) couldn’t crack the code behind Jacksonville’s zone defense, throwing for 264 yards and a 0:2 TD/INT in a very poor performance. Allen did chip in 55 rushing yards, but he’s regressed as a thrower. Allen has now thrown for less than six YPA in 50 percent of games this season. In 2020, he only fell below that mark in 3/16 games (19 percent). While the efficiency regression hurts a bit fantasy-wise, it’s more of a real football problem, as Allen is still an elite QB1 with massive passing volume and rushing upside for now…
There is something I’ve noticed with the Bills offense as a whole, and it’s unsettling. Defenses are doing to the Bills offense what they’ve been doing to the Chiefs offense as of late — daring them to pass short or run the ball. In the two weeks since the bye, Josh Allen has posted minuscule 5.6 and 6.1 aDOTs. In those two games, Buffalo has run the ball 24 times total outside of Josh Allen scrambles. This is something to watch, and the parallels between KC/BUF and Mahomes/Allen are striking.
Zack Moss (28% snaps, 5 touches, 4 targets) suffered a concussion, so Devin Singletary (72% snaps, 13 touches, 7 targets) picked up most of the work in this one. Singletary was predictably inefficient, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per target on his way to 59 scoreless yards. If Moss can’t go in Week 10, Singletary is a solid RB3, but this is still Moss’ backfield, and when he’s healthy he’s a high-end RB3 with high-value touch equity.
Stefon Diggs (6/85/0, 19% target share, 9.0 aDOT) has seen his ceiling crater this season amidst stiffer target competition and Josh Allen’s inefficiency. While it’s great that he’s consistently putting up 15-18 fantasy points, he looks like a slight bust when you consider his top fifteen ADP this offseason. I do still think the ceiling is there somewhere, but it’s time to lower expectations for now, and I currently have Diggs as a mid-tier WR1 rather than an elite top three WR1.
Emmanuel Sanders (4/65/0, 19% target share, 13.4 aDOT) was solid once again, and he’s only scored less than 9.2 fantasy points twice in 2021. While the veteran offers more floor than ceiling, he does have two 20+ fantasy point games on his resume, so the ceiling isn’t bad at all. Sanders is a classic example of a solid low-end WR3 who can be started with confidence.
I mentioned last week that Cole Beasley (8/33/0, 67% snaps, 26% target share, 5.8 aDOT) should be in line for more work with Dawson Knox out, and he got peppered in this one, though the result was disappointing. The slick slot man also caught two balls in the red zone, so the usage was fantastic here despite the mediocre end result. I’m still viewing Beasley as a solid WR3 in PPR until Knox returns, and when he does return, Beasley will return to being a more inconsistent WR4.
The aforementioned tight end Dawson Knox should be back either this week or next week, and I’m still valuing him like a low-end TE1 with major touchdown equity.