The Blitz Week 8: AFC Edition
All of the most important statistics, insights, and analysis for every fantasy-relevant player in the AFC
We’re nearly at the halfway point of the NFL season as we approach Week 9. As usual, it’s been chaotic, humbling, and hopefully, enjoyable. I know I’ve had to re-adjust the way I’m looking at almost every player and offense in the NFL as we’ve gone along. Fortunately, after the pain of realizing you were wrong fades, your new, more accurate perspective can help you get a leg up on those still clinging to their biases.
You’ll notice that I’m talking more confidently about utilization and player value — that’s because I’ve established a baseline expectation for player performance, situational play-calling, formation usage, and opponent influence. By now I’ve done enough research with a big enough sample size to feel confident, and I want you to feel that way as well. That’s not to say that variance can’t flip things upside down on any given week or in any given game, because it can, but we have to do our best to see through that.
In this week’s newsletter, my goal is to cut through the variance and establish an expectation for what we can expect from every fantasy-relevant player in the AFC. Cut through the noise while others get lost in it and reap the rewards.
Baltimore Ravens
Bye week in Week 8. This week I’ll be monitoring the Sammy Watkins vs Rashod Bateman battle for playing time closely.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo predictably passed at a 65.2% rate in a neutral script, as Brian Daboll leans pass-heavy until he’s up by 14+ points.
Josh Allen (5.9 YPA) had a poor YPA but still threw for 249 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT while rushing for 8/55/1. Essentially, Allen was the overall fantasy QB1 in a down game… that says everything you need to know.
Zack Moss (64% snaps, 14 touches, 7 targets) dominated the backfield, salvaging an 8/19/0 rushing day with 6/39/0 through the air. If he can pair this sort of receiving usage with a goal-line score or two in games going forward, watch out. Moss remains a rock-solid RB3 and the clear leader of a two-man committee.
Devin Singletary (34% snaps, 8 touches, 1 target) is nothing more than a change of pace back/handcuff. While he should be rostered everywhere, he should only be started in truly desperate situations.
Stefon Diggs (5/40/1, 24% target share, 5.6 aDOT) continues to bank 15-20 fantasy points per game despite ceiling performances eluding him. Those ceiling performances will come, however, as he’s still an elite WR1 dominating targets in an aggressive offense. His low aDOT last week was due to the presence of ball-hawking corner Xavien Howard.
Cole Beasley (10/11/0, 71% snaps, 20% target share, 7.1 aDOT) got back on track as I predicted he would with Dawson Knox out. Beasley is a locked-in WR3 in PPR formats so long as Knox is out due to stable playing time. Knox should be back fairly soon, however, and Beasley’s outlook after that depends on whether or not Brian Daboll favors three wideout sets or two tight end sets.
Emmanuel Sanders (0/0/0, 77% snaps, 15.6% target share, 8.8 aDOT) put up donuts, but his utilization wasn’t far off normal, and he was facing off against an elite cornerback in Byron Jones. I’m still going back to Sanders as a low-end WR3 though his outlook is slightly dampened by Cole Beasley’s presence in three wideout sets with Dawson Knox out for the next week or two.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy threw at an extremely high 70.4% rate in Week 8, which was great to see. It’s clear that the team is leaning pass-heavy at this point, which is great to see for everyone involved.
Joe Burrow (7.6 YPA) has been incredibly consistent, and that continued on Sunday, as he threw for 259 yards with a 3:1 TD/INT. Burrow is a high-end QB2 until further notice, especially with the passing volume becoming less of an issue.
Joe Mixon (77% snaps, 18 touches, 5 targets) amassed 91 total yards and two touchdowns against the Jets on Sunday while thriving in the passing game for a change. He also ran 22 routes to Samaje Perine’s 11, which was huge. However, Chris Evans will be back soon, and it will be tough for Mixon to fend off two options for passing work…
I’m still expecting around two or three Mixon targets per game going forward. Overall, Mixon is a low-end RB1 operating in a positive offensive environment — just know that he’s likely to do his best work in games where the Bengals are favored.
Ja’Marr Chase (3/32/1, 95% snaps, 24% target share, 4.1 aDOT) had somewhat of a down game, but he still led the team in targets and dropped an additional would-be touchdown. Other than the strangely low aDOT, I’m not concerned about anything here, and I still think we see a 15+ aDOT in his future this week — Chase is still a low-end WR1.
Tee Higgins (4/97/0, 77% snaps, 20% target share, 17.0 aDOT) had a great day with only a touchdown missing. Higgins is racking up targets at a very high rate in this explosive offense, and it’s only a matter of time before everything comes together. I’m valuing him like a borderline WR2/3.
Tyler Boyd (5/69/1, 80% snaps, 21% target share, 11.3 aDOT) had a big bounceback game, and he’s the biggest beneficiary of the jump in the passing volume. I’m cautiously valuing Boyd like a low-end WR3 again in PPR formats, but he’s still the lowest ceiling receiver of the bunch.
C.J. Uzomah (4/33/1) played on 86 percent of snaps and had another good game, but he still saw just a 9 percent target share. If you bet on Uzomah, you’re betting on him finding the end zone, and I don’t like making that bet on a weekly basis.