The Blitz Week 7: NFC Edition
Everything you need to know about every fantasy-relevant NFC player.
Before we get into the good stuff, I want to go in-depth on a couple of stats that I use regularly, just to help provide context as to what they are telling you. While I provide that context at times, implicitly knowing what the numbers mean when you see them can be very helpful.
Quarterback — Yards Per Attempt (YPA):
8.5+ is elite
8.0-8.5 is very good
7.5- 8.0 is above average
7.0-7.5 is average
6.5-7.0 is below average
6.5 and below is poor
Wide Receiver — Average Depth of Target (aDOT):
15+ is reserved for deep threats. Only players with elite speed and/or high point catch ability can thrive in this range. Consistency can be an issue due to lower catch rates, but rare high target rate receivers thrive in this role. Think Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Courtland Sutton.
12-15 indicates an above-average amount of deep targets with some medium and short-area looks mixed in. If the receiver is an above-average athlete, this might be their optimal range. Higher yards per reception can offset minor consistency issues. Think Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, and Marvin Jones.
10-12 is average, meaning that the receiver is very balanced. Most receivers operate best in this range. Think Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, and Diontae Johnson.
7-10 indicates that the receiver is getting mostly short-area targes with the occasional medium/deep target. Upside is slightly capped, but run after the catch skills can overcome it in some cases. Think Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Sterling Shepard.
5-7 indicates that the receiver is targeted almost exclusively in the short passing game. Upside suffers in a big way. Think Tyler Boyd, Cole Beasley, and Juju Smith-Schuster.
We’re right in the thick of it at this point of the season. Injuries and byes are placing a premium on players that you can count on every single week. If you’re in a league that isn’t especially deep/sharp, I would highly suggest trying to stockpile dependable running backs by trading quality wideouts to teams who are thin there. In those formats, you can find solid WR4’s on the waiver wire to fill in when needed, but you won’t find any dependable backs. If you are in a deep/sharp league, I would try to be a bit more aggressive and consolidate while everyone is panicked about depth. It’s risky, but in tough leagues, you need a juggernaut team to win come playoff time. Now is the perfect time to pry stars from teams that have seen their depth go by the wayside. Without further ado, let’s get into how every fantasy-relevant player in the NFC is trending at this critical stage of the season.
Arizona Cardinals
Another week and another low pass rate (46.4%) for Arizona. The Cardinals are passing at just a 51.5% rate in 2021 (29th). Hopefully, the Packers can push them on Thursday night without Davante Adams.
Kyler Murray (9.3 YPA) easily subdued Houston’s helpless defensive unit, throwing for 261 yards and a 3:1 TD/INT. The volume remains an issue, but efficiency is locked in. Eventually, teams will start pushing Arizona and the volume and efficiency combination will lead to a lot of fantasy points. Kyler is a top-five QB1.
Chase Edmonds (69% snaps, 16 touches, 3 targets) appears to be mostly recovered from his nagging shoulder injury, as he led the backfield in Week 7 despite the team facing a dreadful Texans team. If Edmonds can just start scoring some touchdowns, he could leap into the middle of the RB2 ranks as an explosive dual-threat player. He does have 14 red zone touches on the season even with the injury issues… so it’s not out of the question.
James Conner rightfully took a backseat, playing on just 29.6% of snaps while getting 10 carries and zero targets. Conner’s value takes a major hit if Edmonds is indeed healthy. I’m valuing Conner as a touchdown-dependent RB4 who is only playable in games where Arizona is favored, which will be the case most of the time, to be fair.
DeAndre Hopkins (7/53/1, 32% target share, 8.6 aDOT) finally posted the alpha target share we’ve been waiting for, but this was a legitimate revenge game, and I believe that Kyler went out of his way to feed him. He’s still suffering from the low overall volume, and I’m not sold on the one-game blip. I’m going to need to see it again before I upgrade Hopkins from a high-end WR2 back to a WR1.
Christian Kirk popped up for a 4/50/1 line (5 targets, 18% share) while playing 71.8% of snaps and running a decent 25 routes. Kirk could be a potential WR4 if this usage sticks, but Zach Ertz still didn’t play as many snaps as he’s going to once fully integrated, so I’m skeptical. At worst, Kirk is a playable WR5 however, so I do still think he should be rostered in most formats.
A.J. Green (3/66/0, 84.5% snaps, 21.3 aDOT) has seen just 3.63 targets per game over the last three weeks, but he’s squeaked by with two solid games in a row. I can’t stop hating on Green, I just can’t… but I’ll call him a WR5 and move on.
Zach Ertz made the most out of his 49.3% snaps and 25 routes, turning in a 3/66/1 line in his Cardinals debut. I expect Ertz to get more involved with around 60-70 percent snaps and 30 ish routes, which would make him a solid TE2 in a worst-case scenario.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta leaned pass-heavy against Miami in a game that was close for the most part, airing it out at a 65 percent rate. I expect them to continue to throw plenty with the weapons they have in the passing game.
Matt Ryan (8.4 YPA) played solid football, which is asking a lot these days, throwing 336 yards, a 2:1 TD/INT, and most importantly, a 9.2 aDOT. Ryan has consistently given receivers opportunities down the field in three straight games now, and he’s a low-end QB2/streamer who should only be started in plus matchups.
Cordarrelle Patterson (73% snaps, 16 touches, 5 targets) is the captain now. Arthur Smith has impressively found a way to take advantage of Patterson’s physical gifts, and he’s thriving in both facets of the game. Patterson went for 14/60/1 on the ground and 2/1/0 through the air against Miami, totaling 18.1 PPR points. Patterson has scored at least 14.1 PPR points in five of his six games in 2021, and he deserves to be considered a solid RB2.
Mike Davis (60.3% snaps, 4 touches, 0 targets) is toast as an every-week starter. He’s not a good running back, and he doesn't have a good enough offensive line to compensate for that. The Falcons seem to have given up trying to force carries to him, and rightly so, as he’s averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards per carry. Davis was the quintessential dead zone back this draft season, and unsurprisingly… he’s dead. I’m valuing him like a low-end RB3 who shouldn’t be in lineups until something changes.
If you did draft Davis don’t beat yourself up, just learn from it. Backs like Davis who get drafted in rounds 4-7 (RB dead zone) who don’t have a history of production and seem to be “projected” for a big workload almost always fail. That’s because there’s always someone lurking to steal their job, even if it’s not obvious. Nobody thought Cordarrelle Patterson was going to step in and become an RB2 this year, but it happened.
The issue is that the best thing about backs like Mike Davis when evaluating them in the preseason is the lack of perceived competition. It’s not that Davis was in a prolific offense, or that he was a good player, it was just projected volume that was/is much more fragile than people think. Myles Gaskin is another example of a dead zone back failing in 2021. Don’t be overconfident in your ability to project volume… dead zone backs go in rounds 4-7 for a reason.
Calvin Ridley (4/26/1, 73% snaps, 26% target share, 6.8 aDOT) caught a touchdown, but this was a very tilting game as a Ridley owner. Ridley and Matt Ryan can’t seem to get on the same page, so 10 targets went to waste, and Ridley reverted back to running low aDOT routes, which makes no sense.
If you zoom out, Ridley is a very talented receiver regularly getting 10 targets per game, so it would be very unwise to sell him low, even if being concerned is understandable. I think the correct way to view Ridley’s outlook is this — he’s not going to live up to his WR3 overall ADP, but he’s not going to continue being this mediocre either… I expect Ridley to be a low-end WR1 the rest of the way.
Kyle Pitts is an alien. The superstar rookie tight end punished Miami with a 7/163/0 line while running 33 routes, which was tied for the most on the team. Only four of those routes were run from an in-line position, so he’s operating as a wide receiver a la Mike Gesicki. Pitts dominated down the field (18.5 aDOT), made multiple jaw-dropping catches, and soaked up 21 percent of targets… I’m valuing him as the TE2 overall the rest of the way behind only Travis Kelce.