The Blitz Week 7: AFC Edition
Everything you need to know about every fantasy-relevant AFC player.
Before we get into the good stuff, I want to go in-depth on a couple of stats that I use regularly, just to help provide context as to what they are telling you. While I provide that context at times, implicitly knowing what the numbers mean when you see them can be very helpful.
Quarterback — Yards Per Attempt (YPA):
8.5+ is elite
8.0-8.5 is very good
7.5- 8.0 is above average
7.0-7.5 is average
6.5-7.0 is below average
6.5 and below is poor
Wide Receiver — Average Depth of Target (aDOT):
15+ is reserved for deep threats. Only players with elite speed and/or high point catch ability can thrive in this range. Consistency can be an issue due to lower catch rates, but rare high target rate receivers thrive in this role. Think Marquise Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Courtland Sutton.
12-15 indicates an above-average amount of deep targets with some medium and short-area looks mixed in. If the receiver is an above-average athlete, this might be their optimal range. Higher yards per reception can offset minor consistency issues. Think Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, and Marvin Jones.
10-12 is average, meaning that the receiver is very balanced. Most receivers operate best in this range. Think Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, and Diontae Johnson.
7-10 indicates that the receiver is getting mostly short-area targes with the occasional medium/deep target. Upside is slightly capped, but run after the catch skills can overcome it in some cases. Think Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Sterling Shepard.
5-7 indicates that the receiver is targeted almost exclusively in the short passing game. Upside suffers in a big way. Think Tyler Boyd, Cole Beasley, and Juju Smith-Schuster.
We’re right in the thick of it at this point of the season. Injuries and byes are placing a premium on players that you can count on every single week. If you’re in a league that isn’t especially deep/sharp, I would highly suggest trying to stockpile dependable running backs by trading quality wideouts to teams who are thin there. In those formats, you can find solid WR4’s on the waiver wire to fill in when needed, but you won’t find any dependable backs. If you are in a deep/sharp league, I would try to be a bit more aggressive and consolidate while everyone is panicked about depth. It’s risky, but in tough leagues, you need a juggernaut team to win come playoff time. Now is the perfect time to pry stars from teams that have seen their depth go by the wayside. Without further ado, let’s get into how every fantasy-relevant player in the AFC is trending at this critical stage of the season.
Baltimore Ravens
Unsurprisingly, Baltimore showed a willingness to air it out in a negative game script, throwing 66.2% of the time in a blowout loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will throw at above-average rates when trailing, and near league average rates in close games.
Lamar Jackson (8.3 YPA) wasn’t especially accurate, going just 15-for-31 with 257 yards and a touchdown pass, but he continues to be extremely aggressive down the field (14.4 aDOT), which led to a quality YPA. Lamar also chipped in a ridiculously casual 12/88/0 on the ground, and he remains an elite top-five QB1.
Devonta Freeman (39.7% snaps, 7 touches, 3 targets, 3.5 YPC), Le’Veon Bell (28.8% snaps, 6 touches, 2 targets, 1.0 YPC), and Ty’Son Williams (28.8% snaps, 4 touches, 2 targets, 5.0 YPC) formed a sad committee with Latavius Murray out. None of them did anything remotely remarkable, which was hardly a surprise given the split and lack of talent outside of Ty’Son.
Murray is expected back after the bye this week, and this is still a nightmare, with Williams being the only talented back of the bunch despite the fact that he’s indefensibly underutilized. Murray is a solid RB3 in projected neutral to positive script games, while Williams is a bet on talent stash option, though he doesn’t need to be rostered.
Marquise Brown (5/80/1, 41% target share, 22.9 aDOT) had a nice day, but it could’ve been far better, as he was targeted a whopping 14 times in the game with a massive aDOT while running 16 more routes than the next closest receiver. Brown is a flat-out stud who is getting the utilization necessary for WR2 production, including deep throws that mesh perfectly with his skill set. I’m continuing to value Hollywood ahead of the market as a low-end WR2.
Mark Andrews (3/48/0, 21% target share, 11.7 aDOT) had a down day, but he ran 33 routes and saw another excellent target share. The only tight ends I’d rather have on my roster are Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Kyle Pitts…
Rashod Bateman (3/80/0, can play. Through two games Bateman has been targeted 12 times despite being eased in coming off of a brutal calf injury. The big question is whether or not the team will do the right thing and play Bateman ahead of Sammy Watkins when the latter returns after the bye. I’m valuing the rookie first-rounder as a high-end WR5 with real upside.
Buffalo Bills
Bye week last week. Look for Buffalo to utilize more three and four wideout sets with Dawson Knox set to miss a few weeks due to a broken hand. Cole Beasley should be a low-end WR3 in those games with secure playing time.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy proved that they are for real in Week 7, destroying the Ravens 41-17 on the road while surprisingly throwing at an above-average 61.9% rate. We haven’t seen that high of a pass rate from the Bengals in a positive script, so that was good to see. I’m not ready to say that Cincinnati is going to throw that much regularly, but it’s something to watch this week against the Jets in what should be another positive script.
Joe Burrow (10.9 YPA) is becoming a superstar before our very eyes, and he shredded Baltimore for 416 yards and a 3:1 TD/INT on the road in a crucial divisional game in Week 7. Burrow is moving up the QB2 ranks, and I’m now valuing him like a high-end QB2 who can be comfortably started in most matchups. Passing volume is the only potential obstacle if the Bengals revert back to their old ways.
Joe Mixon (54% snaps, 12 touches, 0 targets, 10/59/1 rushing) split touches with Samaje Perine (47.6% snaps, 12 touches, 1 target). While the split was mostly due to the blowout, Perine continues to take away a ton of passing game work from Mixon, and he could stay more involved than we’d like as the Bengals gear up for the playoffs. I’m looking at Mixon as a solid borderline RB1/2 with capped upside the rest of the way.
Perine is more of a handcuff than anything else, but if you’re extremely desperate he could be plugged into lineups this week against an awful Jets squad.
Ja’Marr Chase (8/201/1, 28% target share, 11.7 aDOT) made my Randy Moss comparison from a week ago look prescient, as he destroyed one of the best corners in the NFL in Marlon Humphrey all game long. I maintain that Chase is simply on another level, and he remains an extremely rare rookie WR1.
Tee Higgins disappointingly finished with just 7/62/0 despite racking up a massive 15 targets (42 percent share) with an optimal aDOT (11.9). Higgins is a good player, so I don’t believe that the inefficiency will stick around. The important thing is that he was the biggest beneficiary from added passing volume — I’m still valuing Higgins as a high-end WR3.
Tyler Boyd (4/39/0, 19% target share, 6.3 aDOT) saw seven targets with the volume increase, but he’s been very inefficient this season, and that continued on Sunday. If you told me Boyd would see seven targets I would tell you he’s startable, but his upside is capped. I’m still viewing him as a low-ceiling WR4 in PPR who can only be started when Cincy is an underdog.
C.J. Uzomah went off for 3/91/2, and this was his second huge performance of the season. Still, it came with an eight percent target share, and much of it was on busted coverages after the catch. I don’t chase past production without utilization to back it up, so I’m not adding Uzomah.