The Blitz Week 6: NFC Edition
Actionable statistics and predictive analysis for every fantasy-relevant NFC player.
After six weeks of action, I’m taking the data we have so far and establishing an entirely new baseline. The first baseline I was working from was formulated from offseason analysis. The countless hours of research I did this offseason was my foundation, and I was then adjusting my views on players/situations, etc. based on what took place in the first six weeks.
Now, we have a big enough sample to put more faith into what we’ve actually seen on the field in terms of utilization, results, team tendencies, and opponent-specific factors. So, going forward I’m going to be reacting more based on what we’ve seen, than my prior opinion on players. I still believe that I can evaluate players more efficiently than the market, but it would be arrogant not to place more importance on “the facts,” if you will.
You’ve probably heard me talking a lot about starting certain players only in positive/negative/neutral game scripts, and I want to expand upon that a bit. At this point in the year, coaches have tipped their hand as far as how they want to utilize players situationally, and we have to take that into account. Additionally, there are also volume constraints in certain game scripts that disappear in others. Looking at game spreads is actually critical in fantasy football as well as gambling.
Here are a couple of examples — given what we’ve seen to this point, we only want to start Tyler Boyd in games where Cincinnati is an underdog because he has too much target competition to thrive in a low passing volume environment. We also don’t want to start Devin Singletary in games where the Bills are favored because he doesn’t pound the rock and he doesn’t score touchdowns. Singletary is primarily a pass-catching back that thrives when the game is close or his team is losing.
Making start/sit, prop bet, and other player-centric decisions based on the projected game script is a massive edge, as the market isn’t yet efficient in that area. Outside of the fantasy stars who never leave your lineup, game scripts heavily influence all other vulnerable players. Unless a player is a star, they are fragile, and their coaching staff isn’t going to feed them no matter what… they are on the team to play a role. The same goes for your fantasy team, you have a core of stars and role players shuffling in and out week to week. Even bad fantasy football managers aren’t going to bench their stars, so we gain our edge by shuffling the ancillary pieces in and out better than they do.
Let’s get right into it, because we’ve hit the point in the fantasy season where injuries and bye weeks are wreaking havoc. It’s never been more important to know how you should value every fantasy-relevant player, and The Blitz has you covered.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona continues to throw at a very low rate, as they passed just 46.4% of the time in Week 6 while rolling over the Browns 37-14.
Kyler Murray (7.6 YPA) made up for a lack of rushing (7/6/0) by throwing for 229 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Murray remains a top-five QB1 despite the recent lack of rushing production and continually low passing volume because he’s talented enough to overcome those obstacles.
With Chase Edmonds (37.3% snaps, 7 touches, 4 targets) still banged up, James Conner (54.7% snaps, 17 touches, 1 target) carried the load in the blowout, though he scored just 8.1 PPR points in a rare touchdown-less game for him. Edmonds is a low-end RB2 when healthy and Conner remains a touchdown-dependent RB3.
DeAndre Hopkins magically turned just four targets (15 percent share) into a 3/55/2 line. While he scored 20.5 PPR points, the troubling trend continues… Kyler won’t stop spreading the ball around. It’s time to downgrade Hopkins into the high-end WR2 range with volume and target share concerns mounting.
Christian Kirk hung 5/75/1 (30 percent target share) on the Browns while seeing his snaps skyrocket up to 85.3%, but the usage isn’t going to stay that way. Arizona went to a ton of four wide sets because they didn’t have a tight end, but Zach Ertz was recently acquired to replace Maxx Williams, and he will revert the team back to their typical formation pattern. Kirk remains a boom/bust WR5.
A.J. Green (5/79/1, 22% target share, 16.3 aDOT) came through after a tough Week 5, and he’s a relatively stable WR5 option.
Rondale Moore saw a snaps bump (56 percent) but managed just a 3/16/0 line. It’s tough to ask a guy with this much target competition to be consistent with suboptimal playing time when the passing volume is so low. Moore looks like a player who needs an injury to happen in front of him for his talent to shine through… stash him on your bench for now.
Zach Ertz has a shot to be a streamable TE2 once he’s integrated, but it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach. Ertz has a questionable amount of juice left in the tank and the target competition/volume constraints will affect his outlook.