The Blitz Week 6: AFC Edition
Actionable statistics and predictive analysis for every fantasy-relevant AFC player.
After six weeks of action, I’m taking the data we have so far and establishing an entirely new baseline. The first baseline I was working from was formulated from offseason analysis. The countless hours of research I did this offseason was my foundation, and I was then adjusting my views on players/situations, etc. based on what took place in the first six weeks.
Now, we have a big enough sample to put more faith into what we’ve actually seen on the field in terms of utilization, results, team tendencies, and opponent-specific factors. So, going forward I’m going to be reacting more based on what we’ve seen, than my prior opinion on players. I still believe that I can evaluate players more efficiently than the market, but it would be arrogant not to place more importance on “the facts,” if you will.
You’ve probably heard me talking a lot about starting certain players only in positive/negative/neutral game scripts, and I want to expand upon that a bit. At this point in the year, coaches have tipped their hand as far as how they want to utilize players situationally, and we have to take that into account. Additionally, there are also volume constraints in certain game scripts that disappear in others. Looking at game spreads is actually critical in fantasy football as well as gambling.
Here are a couple of examples — given what we’ve seen to this point, we only want to start Tyler Boyd in games where Cincinnati is an underdog because he has too much target competition to thrive in a low passing volume environment. We also don’t want to start Devin Singletary in games where the Bills are favored because he doesn’t pound the rock and he doesn’t score touchdowns. Singletary is primarily a pass-catching back that thrives when the game is close or his team is losing.
Making start/sit, prop bet, and other player-centric decisions based on the projected game script is a massive edge, as the market isn’t yet efficient in that area. Outside of the fantasy stars who never leave your lineup, game scripts heavily influence all other vulnerable players. Unless a player is a star, they are fragile, and their coaching staff isn’t going to feed them no matter what… they are on the team to play a role. The same goes for your fantasy team, you have a core of stars and role players shuffling in and out week to week. Even bad fantasy football managers aren’t going to bench their stars, so we gain our edge by shuffling the ancillary pieces in and out better than they do.
Let’s get right into it, because we’ve hit the point in the fantasy season where injuries and bye weeks are wreaking havoc. It’s never been more important to know how you should value every fantasy-relevant player, and The Blitz has you covered.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore went back to their running ways (44.1%), but there’s no need to panic. The Ravens were up so many points so early on that this was completely game script-driven. I fully expect them to continue passing at close to league-average rates in close games.
Lamar Jackson (6.2 YPA) suffered in the blowout, as Marquise Brown dropped another long touchdown, the Baltimore running backs dominated touchdown scoring, and he wasn’t aggressive as a runner due to the big lead. Lamar threw for just 167 yards and a 1:2 TD/INT, but I’m flushing this one and moving on, as it won’t happen again. He’s still a top-five QB1 superstar.
Latavius Murray (37.7% snaps, 11 touches, 2 targets) was leading the backfield once again before he suffered an ankle injury, the severity of which is yet to be determined. Murray is a solid RB3 in projected positive/neutral scripts when healthy, but this injury could allow the more talented Ty’Son Williams to take the reigns, though John Harbaugh seems to hate him, as he was inactive again on Sunday.
Dusty Devonta Freeman (30.4% snaps, 9 touches, 5.9 YPC) and ultra dusty Le’Veon Bell (31.9% snaps, 8 touches, 2.3 YPC) each found the end zone while filling in for Murray, but neither is particularly fantasy-relevant because they’re both completely washed in the year 2021. Maaaaybe I could be talked into Freeman as a desperation flex play if Murray misses time, but I’m not excited about it.
The Ty’Son Williams storyline will be critical to monitor going forward, especially if Murray is out this week. It feels like Williams either gets his shot and takes over this week, or he gets traded because Baltimore hates him for being… way better than anyone else they have? If Ty’Son finds himself in a 12-15 touch role with Baltimore or another team soon he’d immediately be an RB3 with RB2 upside.
I don’t want to go into too much depth on the Baltimore receivers because of the misleading outlier game script, but I’ll hit on the most important stuff.
Marquise Brown dropped another long TD pass, but he remains a high-end WR3 at worst in this explosive passing game.
Rashod Bateman made his NFL debut and impressively drew six targets on just 22 routes run. As Bateman gets fully worked in during the coming weeks I could see him being a real asset as a WR4, or a WR3 in a best-case scenario… there’s real talent and opportunity here.
Mark Andrews (5/68/1) shredded the Chargers even in a positive game script while doing most of his damage in the first half alone… he’s an easy top three overall fantasy tight end.
In a rational world, Sammy Watkins, who missed Sunday’s game due to a hamstring injury, would simply move down the depth chart while the healthier and more talented Rashod Bateman takes over No. 2 WR duties in Baltimore going forward.
However, based on how the staff has treated Ty’Son Williams, I don’t want to assume that just yet, so Watkins is still clinging on to fantasy relevance as a low-end WR5. If he sits again next week while Bateman impresses, even John Harbaugh will have to come to terms with Watkins being demoted.