The Blitz Week 13: Thursday Night Football Edition
The most important utilization metrics and player outlooks for all fantasy-relevant Steelers and Vikings players
Welcome and thank you for reading the first (and hopefully only) Thursday night edition of the newsletter. I apologize once again for the delays this week due to technical issues, but I’m excited about this game, so let’s get down to business.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh escaped with a 20-19 victory over the arch-rival Baltimore Ravens in Week 13 after Baltimore failed to convert a two-point conversion at the last moment. The neutral script produced a 56 percent pass rate that was fairly average. I would expect slightly higher pass rates in those situations going forward (Ravens didn’t respect the run game), as this is still the sixth pass-heaviest team in the NFL.
Ben Roethlisberger (8.4 YPA) had one of his best games of the season without a doubt, throwing for 270 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT. The 8.4 yards per attempt is unfamiliar territory for Ben at this stage, but he was also facing a severely depleted and overrated Ravens defense… he’s still a desperation streamer at best.
Najee Harris (97% snaps, 26 touches, 5 targets) has been woefully inefficient behind an awful offensive line for some time now, and that continued with a 21/71/0 rushing line in Week 13. He did catch five balls, however, and he’s a 25 touches/week back with a locked-in goal-line role. Najee may not be efficient, but he’s an upper-echelon RB1 regardless because of his insane role.
Diontae Johnson (8/105/2, 37% target share, 10.2 aDOT) is a WR1. I’m tired of the “low ceiling WR2” or “WR2 with WR1 upside” rhetoric — it’s time for all of us to accept that Johnson is a fantasy superstar. Among all NFL wideouts, only Cooper Kupp averages more targets per game than Diontae, who is now averaging a ridiculous 7.6/83.1/0.6 weekly line to go along with 19.5 PPR PPG.
Chase Claypool (2/52/0, 10% target share, 16.7 aDOT) should never have a target share below 20 percent on this team, but it happens at times and his noddle-armed quarterback regularly holds him back. The poor situation and his elite talent collide on a weekly basis, resulting in Claypool being a WR3 with high weekly upside and a mediocre floor.
Pat Freiermuth (3/28/0, 17% target share, 4.2 aDOT) had a rare touchdown-less game but stayed very involved. I’m still very high on ‘Muth’ as a back-end TE1 option with insane touchdown equity (11 red zone targets and five touchdowns in his last six games). His matchup this week against the Vikings isn’t great, but he’s more than capable of overcoming it and I would only bench him you have another borderline TE1/2 with a better matchup.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota lost to… the lowly Lions 29-27 in Week 13. The Vikings are the worst “good” team in the NFL; they can light it up and beat pretty much anyone one week before losing to a team like Detroit not long after. In terms of fantasy football, their games almost always produce a ton of plays and points, so I love their game environments. As usual, Minnesota went to a balanced game plan (62 percent pass rate) as that’s how they operate outside of extremely negative scripts.
Kirk Cousins (8.3 YPA) shredded Detroit for 340 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT in yet another quality fantasy performance. Cousins is a stable QB1/2, though it will be interesting to see how he fares in primetime on Thursday night, as he usually struggles in those games.
Alexander Mattison (86% snaps, 26 touches, 3 targets) piled up 23/90/1 on the ground and 3/34/0 through the air while going for 21.4 PPR points, and many were still disappointed given the matchup and ludicrous role. He remains a premier handcuff with injury-prone Dalvin Cook in front of him.
Cook was out with a chronic shoulder issue last week, and for some reason, the team is rushing him back for Week 13’s Thursday night game. If you have Cook, you’re starting him, but the reaggravation risk is off the charts in this spot and the team should be waiting another week, especially with how capable Mattison is as the next man up.
Future Hall of Famer Justin Jefferson (11/182/1, 36% target share, 12.1 aDOT) is completely and utterly unstoppable, and with Adam Thielen (high ankle sprain) set to miss 3-5 weeks, his outlook is somehow even better than it was. Jefferson is my WR3 overall behind only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams… and he’s not far behind.
K.J. Osborn (4/47/1, 92% snaps, 17% target share, 6.0 aDOT) stepped right into a full-time role and he’s crushed when he gets 6+ targets this season (15.2 PPR PPG). Without Adam Thielen, I’m expecting 6-8 targets per game, so Osborn should be valued like a low-end WR3 immediately… go get him.
Tyler Conklin (8/56/0) will also benefit with Thielen on the shelf, as he proved in this game with a season-high eight catches. K.J. Osborn will command targets, but not as many as Adam Thielen did. Plus, Conklin’s touchdown equity spikes massively with the team’s top red zone threat unavailable, so I’m going to be comfortably above market on him as a high-end TE2 going forward.