The Blitz Week 13: AFC Edition
Actionable utilization metrics and outlooks for every fantasy-relevant player in the AFC
I apologize profusely for being behind this week. I encountered a statistical database issue, a migraine, and an AWS/Substack outage this week that delayed things. As a result, I have decided to write up the Thursday night teams (Steelers and Vikings) as a separate post so that you have access to that analysis before gametime (look for it before noon on Thursday). Additionally, the NFC Edition of the newsletter will go live on Friday instead of Thursday this week due to the aforementioned issues. I appreciate your patience and rest assured, things will be back to normal next week.
Fantasy football playoffs are right around the corner, so it’s never been more important to know where things stand with every fantasy-relevant player. You’ll notice that I included analysis on playoff schedules for certain players who are particularly impacted. Without further ado, let’s get right into it and lay the foundation for a fantasy title run.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore lost 20-19 in heartbreaking fashion to the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers after failing to convert what would’ve been the game-winning two-point conversion. It was nice to see the pass rate tick all the way up to 63.8% in just a neutral script. With Lamar back and healthy, I expect them to lean that way going forward, especially with the injuries they have on defense.
Lamar Jackson (6.7 YPA) had some rough moments as a passer, but he played an okay game overall, throwing for 253 yards and a 1:1 TD/INT to go along with 8/55/0 on the ground. Lamar has regressed from a passing standpoint compared to where he was early in the year, but he’s still improved a lot in that area compared to past seasons. I have high hopes for this passing game the rest of the way, and Lamar remains an elite dual-threat QB1.
Devonta Freeman (69% snaps, 19 touches, 8 targets) racked up 97 total yards and a rushing score while catching five passes in a surprising 20.7 PPR point game. Nobody (myself included) wants to admit it, but Freeman is on the RB2/3 borderline with a nice floor. It doesn’t matter if he’s not a good player — he gets 15 touches and teams leave him wide open for dump-offs every time out. It never feels great to count on bad players, but Freeman’s supporting cast, offensive system, and touch floor are all good enough to support fantasy scoring.
Marquise Brown (5/55/0, 19% target share, 9.6 aDOT) had a mediocre game and he’s now been held scoreless and under 56 yards in three straight games. Part of this is due to Lamar’s regression, but it’s also weather-related and pace-related in terms of Baltimore’s recent opponents. Many people scoff, but passing games suffer for teams that play in cold/windy weather this time of the year, and that was on full display in many games this week. I’m downgrading Brown into mid to low-end WR2 range, but I’m still high on him.
Rashod Bateman has been criminally underutilized as he and Sammy Watkins alternate snaps. Neither player is worth rostering at this point, but keep an eye on Bateman because Sammy Watkins gets hurt a lot…
Mark Andrews (4/50/0, 27% target share, 11.2 aDOT) racked up 10 targets and barely missed having a huge game, as he nearly caught both a touchdown and two-point conversion passes. Andrews remains a stud TE1 with elite target and touchdown equity every week.
Buffalo Bills
I’m not going to dive deep into the metrics from this game because it was played during a ferocious storm that featured heavy rain, sleet, and snow to go along with 20+ MPH winds. Instead, I want to sum up where things are at with this offense and its personnel.
Josh Allen has been held under 6.0 YPA four times in his last six games with a poor 11:7 TD/INT. The offense is somewhat broken, as teams continue to drop back in coverage while daring Buffalo’s horrific running backs to beat them on the ground. Thankfully, Allen is still willing to take risks down the field even if it means turning it over at a semi-high rate, and the rushing equity matters a lot right now. For those reasons, he’s still on the edge of the top five QB1 range even amidst uneven play.
After being inactive last week, Zack Moss tied Devin Singletary for the team lead in touches with 10. Neither player did anything even with Matt Breida out of the picture, and this is an absolute nightmare situation. All of the backs have little upside and it’s impossible to predict the utilization week to week… it doesn’t get much rougher than that. I have a hard time valuing Moss and Singletary as anything more than RB4’s who only serve as roster depth.
Stefon Diggs didn’t do much in the hurricane (4/51/0), but his combined line in Weeks 9-12 looked like 25/395/4 and he’s still an elite WR1. I do want to note that his playoff schedule isn’t exactly ideal, as he gets Carolina (Stephon Gilmore) and New England (Bill Belichick will likely take him away) in Weeks 15 and 16 respectively.
I’m still pretty down on Emmanuel Sanders because he hasn’t gotten even close to getting it done since Week 9, and even then it was just a 4/65/0 outing. He’s still running a ton of routes in an offense that takes those risks downfield, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s finally washed. I’m viewing Sanders like a boom/bust low-end WR4 at this point.
Cole Beasley (1/11/0, 69% snaps, 10% target share, 4.3 aDOT) didn’t produce in the storm, but it was encouraging to see his snaps up near 70 percent again. So long as that sticks, Beasley is a high-end WR4 with a very nice floor in PPR formats.
Dawson Knox (2/14/0) also didn’t produce in the storm (common theme here), but he was on the field for 97 percent snaps and, when healthy, he’s been crushing for the most part since Week 1. Knox is a locked-in TE1 stud who is still undervalued by the market.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy fell way behind 24-0, made a big charge to within one score, and then faltered in a game they ended up losing 41-22 to the Chargers. I still think this is a very good team, as the Chargers can be menacing if you catch them at the wrong time. We finally saw a high 65 percent pass rate in the negative script, and it would’ve been higher if not for an injury that I’ll discuss shortly.
Joe Burrow (7.5 YPA) is one tough mother******. He very visibly broke his throwing hand pinky finger early on in the game and was in excruciating pain, but continued on until the end while making some great throws. All in all, Joe threw for 300 yards and a 1:2 TD/INT to go along with a rushing score in a gutty performance. Assuming that the pinky isn’t a big factor, Burrow is a low-end QB1 who should benefit from competitive game scripts given the team’s respectable schedule going forward.
Joe Mixon (66% snaps, 20 touches, 0 targets) carried 20 times despite momentarily leaving with an injury and dealing with a trailing game script. It resulted in just 54 yards, but he found the end zone twice and it shows you how committed the team is to feeding him rushing attempts. On the downside, he didn’t have a single target while Samaje Perine played ahead of him on passing downs. There are mixed signals right now, but Mixon is still a bell-cow back on a very good team, so he remains a strong RB1.
Tee Higgins (9/138/1, 38% target share, 13.1 aDOT) erupted again and he’s been much better than Ja’Marr Chase for a few weeks now. His target share and all-around utilization were always on par with Chase’s, and now the results are as well. I’m viewing him as a strong WR2 asset going forward, and nobody should be surprised by what he’s doing because he’s a great talent.
Ja’Marr Chase (5/52/0, 22% target share, 10.1 aDOT) has struggled to produce with defenses actively shading safety over the top on him, but I’m inclined to bet on the talent here, even if expectations should be lowered a bit. I expect Chase to find a way to excel without needing a deep ball to do so, but by the way — he dropped a pass that would’ve been a 70-yard touchdown in Week 13 — so the deep ball is still in his arsenal. I’m valuing the rookie star like a borderline WR1/2 at this point in time.
Tyler Boyd (5/85/0, 19% target share, 10.1 aDOT) had a fairly strong game as he’s been known to do when the team’s passing volume jumps up. It’s hard to predict volume spikes ahead of time, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Boyd has a mini resurgence going forward due to a competitive schedule that should result in respectable pass rates. I’m upgrading the slot man slightly into the WR4 range’s mid-tier.