The Blitz Week 12: NFC Edition
Utilization metrics, value changes, and concise outlooks for every fantasy-relevant NFC player.
*A quick note before we get into it — if you don’t see a player’s snap rate, it’s because he’s been a full-time player for some time and nothing has changed. If you don’t see a player discussed at all, it’s because they aren’t fantasy relevant and shouldn’t be rostered.
In this week’s intro, I want to discuss sample sizes. I’ve had quite a bit of difficulty in deciding how much stock I want to put into certain phenomena, and I think it’s the crux of the fantasy football world this time of year. If you correctly identify a small sample size trend that you believe will stick, and it does stick, that advantage is massive. Oppositely, if you jump the gun and assume something is sticky when it’s not, you’re putting yourself at a major disadvantage.
Of course, every situation is different, but I don’t want to talk about that. I’m interested in examining a general philosophy at this point in the season. The riskier approach is always going to be taking a strong stance on something new, but is it worth the reward? In my opinion, it depends on how your roster is constructed and where you are in the standings in season-long terms. If you have a playoff spot all but locked up, I would encourage you to take strong stances on new developments one way or another because you can afford to make a mistake, and if you are in the right, the reward could make your team unstoppable. In DFS, it depends on your playstyle entirely, or more accurately, your risk tolerance. Do you want to win really big when you do win but lose more often, or do you want to cut down on losses while capping your ceiling when you do win?
I believe that skill is overrated in terms of forecasting outcomes after a small sample size event in the NFL. My reasoning is that A) One-week samples in the NFL are intensely variable, and B) Independent factors outside of any particular player’s control can shake things up. One way to use delusional/passionate thinking from others to your advantage is to zig when others zag in terms of how the public reacts to small samples. If everyone is buying into something hard after it only happened one time, don’t buy in. If nobody is buying into a small sample size event, try believing in it. Because it’s so hard to know the right path (basically a coin flip), simply fading groupthink is a distinct way to be profitably contrarian, if that makes sense.
I hope that my point was articulated correctly, because I’ve seen some of my biggest successes this season as a direct result of following that line of thinking, particularly in DFS. Without further ado, let’s dissect every relevant NFC player.
Arizona Cardinals
Bye week in Week 12. Look for Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to be back. I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach here and closely monitor how the offense functions with the stars finally back.
Atlanta Falcons
In about the grossest matchup you can imagine, Atlanta beat Jacksonville 21-14 in an ugly affair. Unsurprisingly, the Falcons passed at a below-average 50.9% rate as they just tried to hang on for dear life. The team is in a predicament because they need to limit Matt Ryan’s attempts that inevitably turn into turnovers, but they can’t run the ball against any decent defense. I expect a balanced approach going forward, but it’s hard to pinpoint.
Matty Ice (6.6 YPA) went 19 for 29 with 190 yards and a 1:1 TD/INT — he’s so washed it’s not even funny. Arthur Smith dialed up a pathetic 4.1 aDOT for him even against a terrible Jaguars defense, and he still managed to throw a pick and should’ve had another when he air-mailed the simplest of dump-off passes five yards over the head of Mike Davis. Don’t even think about considering Ryan in any one-QB format.
Cordarrelle Patterson (48% snaps, 18 touches, 3 targets) returned from ankle/knee injuries and picked up right where he left off, torching the Jags for 135 total yards and two touchdowns. Interestingly, he did most of his work on the ground, but the bottom line is that you can count on him getting it done one way or another when he’s healthy… Patterson is a high-end RB2.
Mike Davis (50% snaps, 8 touches, 4 targets) chipped in 3/25/0 through the air, but managed a typically horrible 5/16/0 line on the ground… he’s nothing more than a fringy RB4 in PPR formats.
Russell Gage (6/62/1, 25% target share, 4.0 aDOT) somehow got there because he’s the only true receiver option, but he’s still really bad and his aDOTs are brutal… I wouldn’t chase this.
Did I say brutal? Well, Kyle Pitts (2/26/0, 21% target share, 7.2 aDOT) has been brutal fantasy-wise for some time now. As a rookie, he’s simply not equipped to succeed when facing double teams with an awful QB throwing to him. There’s superstar talent, but the situation is about as bad as can be here, so I’m downgrading Pitts into the low-end TE1 range alongside guys like Mike Gesicki and Rob Gronkowski.
Carolina Panthers
So, the Cam Newton (4.4 YPA… oof) resurgence was fun while it lasted, right? Cam threw for just 92 yards in an absolutely atrocious performance in which he went just 5-for-21 (yes really) with a 0:2 TD/INT while getting benched. Running quarterbacks are great in fantasy football, but they have to be able to pass at least remotely effectively to keep an NFL starting job, and I’m not sure that Cam is good enough to do that anymore. I would still be stashing Newton to see if he gets it together, but it’s not looking good. P.J. Walker would replace Cam if it does get to that point.
Christian McCaffery’s season is over due to an ankle injury, and he clearly can’t stay on the field anymore. As sad as it is to say, I wouldn’t even consider CMC until the third round next year — he’s been so incredibly injury prone. I almost wonder if the team may consider a move to slot receiver just to try and keep him on the field… it’s been that bad. McCaffery has played in just 10/33 games dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
Chuba Hubbard isn’t good, but he’s the next man up at running back again. Expect him to get most of the early-down work and some of the passing game work as an inefficient low-end RB2 who can get by on volume.
D.J. Moore (4/103/0, 38% target share, 15.1 aDOT) somehow thrived even with the horrific passing performance by Carolina’s quarterbacks because he’s #verygood. I’m comfortable with him being a WR2 regardless of who ends up quarterbacking this team.
Robby Anderson (1/15/0, 15% target share, 15.0 aDOT) is a very fringy WR5 who should only be rostered in deep formats.