The Blitz Week 12: AFC Edition
Utilization metrics, value changes, and concise outlooks for every fantasy-relevant AFC player.
*A quick note before we get into it — if you don’t see a player’s snap rate, it’s because he’s been a full-time player for some time and nothing has changed. If you don’t see a player discussed at all, it’s because they aren’t fantasy relevant and shouldn’t be rostered.
In this week’s intro, I want to discuss sample sizes. I’ve had quite a bit of difficulty in deciding how much stock I want to put into certain phenomena, and I think it’s the crux of the fantasy football world this time of year. If you correctly identify a small sample size trend that you believe will stick, and it does stick, that advantage is massive. Oppositely, if you jump the gun and assume something is sticky when it’s not, you’re putting yourself at a major disadvantage.
Of course, every situation is different, but I don’t want to talk about that. I’m interested in examining a general philosophy at this point in the season. The riskier approach is always going to be taking a strong stance on something new, but is it worth the reward? In my opinion, it depends on how your roster is constructed and where you are in the standings in season-long terms. If you have a playoff spot all but locked up, I would encourage you to take strong stances on new developments one way or another because you can afford to make a mistake, and if you are in the right, the reward could make your team unstoppable. In DFS, it depends on your playstyle entirely, or more accurately, your risk tolerance. Do you want to win really big when you do win but lose more often, or do you want to cut down on losses while capping your ceiling when you do win?
I believe that skill is overrated in terms of forecasting outcomes after a small sample size event in the NFL. My reasoning is that A) One-week samples in the NFL are intensely variable, and B) Independent factors outside of any particular player’s control can shake things up. One way to use delusional/passionate thinking from others to your advantage is to zig when others zag in terms of how the public reacts to small samples. If everyone is buying into something hard after it only happened one time, don’t buy in. If nobody is buying into a small sample size event, try believing in it. Because it’s so hard to know the right path (basically a coin flip), simply fading groupthink is a distinct way to be profitably contrarian, if that makes sense.
I hope that my point was articulated correctly, because I’ve seen some of my biggest successes this season as a direct result of following that line of thinking, particularly in DFS. Without further ado, let’s dissect every relevant AFC player.
Baltimore Ravens
It was ugly, but Baltimore grinded out a 16-10 Sunday night win over the Browns in Week 12. Lamar Jackson was extremely erratic, so they chose to throw at a measly 44.2% clip. Lamar’s play going forward is something to watch, because if this regression as a passer sticks we could be looking at the run-heavy Ravens of old.
Lamar Jackson (5.2 YPA) was horrific, throwing for just 165 yards and a *gulp* 1:4 TD/INT. He did chip in 68 rushing yards, but this was brutal. Lamar may not have been fully recovered from his illness, but it also seems like he could be dealing with something chronic and there’s legitimate cause for worry right now. I’m still sticking with him as a top-five QB1, but if he comes out next week and doesn’t look right…
Devonta Freeman (49% snaps, 17 touches, 1 target) handled another large load and struggled efficiency-wise, totaling just a 16/52/0 rushing line. The Browns are a good run defense and Freeman is a bad running back, so this was no surprise. Regardless, he’s in a superb scheme with a locked-in 12-20 weekly touches role, so he’s a solid RB3.
Marquise Brown (8/51/0, 33% target share, 6.8 aDOT) racked up a ton of targets (10) but they were of the low aDOT variety, which is highly unusual for him. This passing game is in flux, but one thing is for sure — Hollywood is a true No. 1 wide receiver and a high-end WR2. I love to see players get it done in unorthodox ways when things aren’t going as planned. To me, that’s a sign that a player is fairly bulletproof in terms of their fantasy outlook.
Rashod Bateman (4/31/0, 44% snaps, 13% target share, 6.3 aDOT) and Sammy Watkins (1/8/0, 43% snaps, 3% target share, 8.0 aDOT), unfortunately, played about the same amount of snaps despite Watkins being completely washed and Bateman being a total stud. Watkins shouldn’t be owned in any format while Bateman should be stashed as a WR5 with WR3 upside in hopes that he rightfully gets the No. 2 WR role to himself soon.
Mark Andrews (4/65/1, 33% target share, 16.1 aDOT) is an absolute stud whose aDOT continues to grow to go along with a stable and very high target share — he’s a clear top-tier TE1.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo cruised to a 31-6 Thanksgiving win over the Saints, who simply cannot score on a good defense without Alvin Kamara. The blowout results in a low 48.4% pass rate, but this is still a pass-first offense in non-positive scripts.
Josh Allen (9.3 YPA) was excellent minus a couple of bad throws, as he threw for 260 yards and a 4:2 TD/INT on just 28 attempts while chipping in 43 rushing yards. I’d sum up Allen as a fantasy quarterback by saying this — 2020 will go down as the best year of his career and he’ll never reach those heights again, but he’s still an elite top-five option at the position. At the end of the day, Allen is a very mobile QB who takes shots down the field while piling up passing and rushing scores. In other words, he’s a dream fantasy QB.
Devin Singletary (68% snaps, 16 touches, 1 target) and Matt Breida (32% snaps, 11 touches, 2 targets) led the backfield in Week 12 with Zack Moss harshly getting the dreaded healthy scratch treatment. Both backs rushed for just 2.9 YPC and red zone touches were fairly even, so this isn’t great. For now, Singletary is a high-end RB4 with RB3 upside and Breida is a low-end RB4 with worse touch projection. I want to see one play emerge as the definitive leader of the committee before getting the least bit excited.
Stefon Diggs shredded New Orleans for a 7/74/1 line with a massive 35 percent target share and he’s now scored four touchdowns in his last three games while averaging 6.3 catches and 86.3 yards. Diggs is back as a superstar top-five WR1.
Emmanuel Sanders managed just three catches for 28 yards with a poor 12 percent target share while seeing his snap rate drop below 80 percent. Sanders has been struggling for some time now and if he wasn’t in a high upside offense he’d be a WR5. For now, I’m holding on to him as a boom/bust WR4 who should be avoided in games where Buffalo is a big favorite.
Cole Beasley (5/46/0, 70% snaps, 19% target share, 6.6 aDOT) saw his snaps jump back up as he put together a solid game. It’s hard to predict Brian Daboll’s weekly deployment of Beasley, but it seems to be very gameplan specific. I want to say that Beasley is a borderline WR3/4 in PPR, but he could drop down to 30 percent snaps at any time and he has a low ceiling anyways, so he’s just a middling WR4 option.
Dawson Knox (3/32/2, 91% snaps, 12% target share, 3.3 aDOT) smashed again, and his touchdown equity is just off the charts — he’s also shown an ability to rack up yards in plus matchups, so I’m taking an above the market stance on Knox as my TE10 overall.