The Blitz Week 11: NFC Edition
Key utilization metrics and predictive analysis for every fantasy-relevant player in the NFC.
Like most of you, I’m celebrating Thanksgiving with my family this week, and like some of you, I’m traveling a long way to do that, so this week’s newsletter will be more concise than usual. Fear not, I will still strategically pick out the most important information you need from every team. If anything that I saw last week significantly changed my outlook on a player’s value, you’ll hear about it. In cases where injuries obfuscated things or a player had a very typical performance, I might not mention them, so if you’re wondering why I didn’t touch on a certain player or go into more detail on them, it’s probably because what I wrote last week still applies.
With all of that said, this is a wonderful time of year in many aspects of life, and especially when it comes to football. As usual, on Thanksgiving week, we’ll have three Thursday games, 11 Sunday games, and one Monday game comprising a unique and awesome holiday slate. Three Thursday games require us to prepare early this week, so let’s get right to it and dive into the NFC.
Arizona Cardinals
There’s very little to take away from Arizona’s 23-13 win over a truly awful Seattle Seahawks team, as Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were both out again. Both stars should return after the Week 12 bye for the team’s Week 13 matchup against the Bears, and we’ll be looking at an entirely different offensive ecosystem when they do.
Some quick notes on player value going forward: Kyler Murray is a mid-range QB1 who will hopefully be healthy enough to run more, James Conner is a locked-in low-end RB1 until Chase Edmonds comes back, DeAndre Hopkins is a high-end WR2 if healthy, Christian Kirk is a decent WR4, Rondale Moore and A.J. Green are fringy WR5’s.
Atlanta Falcons
There aren’t words to describe how pathetic Atlanta’s offense is right now, and the shutout against New England on Thursday night was basically unwatchable. This is a team that needs to throw because they get down so often, but their passing game is absurdly bad… so you can see how that would be a recipe for disaster.
Matt Ryan (5.5 YPA, 153 yards, 0:2 TD/INT) is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL right now with only two passable weapons (one of whom is dinged up) to throw to. There’s nothing boding well for the washed-up veteran right now, and he’s not close to a fantasy consideration.
Cordarrelle Patterson missed Thursday’s game due to a lingering ankle issue, but he should be back for Week 13. The Swiss Army Knife is one of the only bright spots as a solid RB2 who can rack up rushing and receiving yards in bunches when healthy.
Wayne Gallman and Mike Davis shared backfield duties and combined for -2 rushing yards, no joke. This offense is so sad right now that Davis is barely a viable RB4 anymore with Gallman mixing in, and I don’t have any interest in rostering either player outside of deep formats.
Calvin Ridley is still without a timetable to return and he may miss the entire season.
Russell Gage put together a 5/49/1 line (29% target share) in a ceiling performance. I guess he’s an okay WR5 in PPR formats, but I would only start him if I was desperate because he’s a bad receiver with a bad quarterback on a bad team… that’s a lot of bad.
Kyle Pitts (3/29/0, 18% target share, 11.4 aDOT) was pretty much a non-factor as expected. Bill Belichick was never going to let Pitts beat him with zero other weapons around for Atlanta. Matt Ryan’s awful play is a big concern, but Pitts is still a freakishly talented number one target right now, so let’s not get too down on him as an upper-echelon TE1.
Carolina Panthers
This loss is on Joe Brady, who called an awful game on offense. Carolina battled but came up short 27-21 at home to the Football Team. Brady moronically had his team throw at an above-average 57.1% clip despite CMC dominating on the ground and Cam Newton struggling while not knowing the full playbook. I expect a fairly balanced approach going forward, but this was a very poor game plan.
Cam Newton (7.0 YPA) dinked and dunked (5.6 aDOT) his way to 189 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT while rushing for 46 yards and a score. Cam may not be a good real-life QB anymore, but his insane rushing role, particularly near the goal line makes him an immediate low-end QB1 in my opinion.
Christian McCaffery made Cam look good in the passing game, as he put together a 7/60/1 receiving line. However, he was victimized by poor play-calling as a rusher. Despite averaging nearly six yards per carry, CMC only carried 10 times for 59 yards. I expect workloads in the 20-30 touch range going forward as the machine rounds into full health, and he’s the RB2 overall behind only Jonathan Taylor.
D.J. Moore (5/50/1, 27% target share, 7.6 aDOT) benefited from the QB change, and it makes sense. Cam is a below-average NFL passer at this stage in his career, but at least he deserves to be in the NFL unlike Sam Darnold and PJ Walker. Moore is a solid WR2 going forward with upside for more.
Robby Anderson (5/30/0, 23% target share, 3.3 aDOT) saw his aDOT crater, and if this is a role change it could mean that he exchanges some ceiling for a floor, which would at least make him a viable low-end WR4 in PPR. It’s too early to tell if this sticks, but I do think Robby should be picked up in deeper formats just to see what happens with Cam under center.
Chicago Bears
There’s a lot going on here. Andy Dalton is starting the Thanksgiving game because Justin Fields (ribs) needs another week, Matt Nagy is reportedly set to be fired after the game according to a connected Chicago reporter, and Allen Robinson is looking doubtful. Nagy being fired would benefit everyone, and the loss to the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens at home in Week 11 sums up his tenure pretty well.
Andy Dalton is an okay desperation streamer this week if you really need one because he’s playing against the Lions. Dalton had success in Week 11 when he came in for Fields in the second half, but his 201 yards and 2:0 TD/INT performance was a bit misleading because a massive chunk of that production came on a screen pass that Darnell Mooney took all the way to the house. Make no mistake about it, the red rocket is still a bad and immobile quarterback “protected” by a horrific offensive line.
David Montgomery (95% snaps, 15 touches, 1 target) ran well, turning 14 carries into 58 yards (4.1 YPC), but it was disappointing to see him catch just one pass in a negative script. I’m still very high on Montgomery as a locked-in bell-cow RB2, especially in a cakewalk matchup against Detroit this week with check-down master Andy Dalton under center.
Darnell Mooney (5/121/1, 50% target share, 8.9 aDOT) had an insane game in which he caught just five of 17 (!!!) targets while still having a big day. If Allen Robinson is indeed out on Thanksgiving, Mooney could see another gaudy amount of targets due to the lack of other legit options. I’m valuing him like a high-end WR4 on the rise long-term, but he’s a solid WR3 this week.
Cole Kmet disappointingly managed just one catch for 12 yards even without Allen Robinson in the lineup. I’m willing to write this off as a fluke because Kmet is a near full-time player who is likely to be the de facto No. 2 option this week in a great matchup… he’s a solid TE2 lacking ideal ceiling.
Detroit Lions
Tim Boyle, who is one of the most unqualified NFL QB’s in league history, started this game for Detroit, so there’s not much to take away. Jared Goff will be back this week, though he’s only a small upgrade.
D’Andre Swift put up a monster 14/136/1 rushing line and caught three balls despite facing stacked boxes — he’s a stud low-end RB1 trying to carry this team by himself. Jamaal Williams finally made his return from a quad injury but managed just a 7/11/0 rushing line while playing just 27 percent of the snaps. I’m viewing him as a handcuff with little standalone value until further notice.
T.J. Hockenson popped back up for a 6/51/0 line on eight targets. Like Kyle Pitts, he’ll have some down games because his team is just that bad, but he’s the clear-cut No. 1 option and an easy mid-tier TE1.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers dropped a tough one in a thrilling 34-31 last-second game-winning field goal loss in Week 11. It was a rare game in which the opponent really pushed Green Bay, and as result, they aired it out a high 64.8% clip. The Packers will continue to throw a ton in games that are closely contested, but otherwise, they like to operate in a balanced or run-heavy fashion.
Aaron Rodgers (11.7 YPA) is playing through a severe toe injury, but that didn’t stop one of the five greatest quarterbacks of all time from throwing for an incredible 385 yards and a 4:0 TD/INT. This was a near-flawless performance that we’ve become all too accustomed to seeing, and we’ll see it again the next time Green Bay is pushed to throw… Rodgers is a fixture in the mid to low-end QB1 range.
A.J. Dillon didn’t have the game script go his way, but he still compiled 11/53/0 and 6/44/0 rushing and receiving lines respectively en route to 15.7 PPR points. It’s a scary thought, but this really felt like Dillon’s floor as the lead back, and I expect him to absolutely destroy the Rams this week if Green Bay’s defense holds up. Dillon is a no-brainer RB1 until Aaron Jones returns in Week 13 or 14.
Davante Adams (7/115/2, 26% target share, 9.1 aDOT) went off as the passing volume jumped, and nobody should be surprised. All Adams needs is two halves of football with respectable pass rates to drop 30+ PPR points… he’s that good. Adams is my WR2 overall in a tier with only Cooper Kupp alongside him.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4/123/1, 32% target share, 15.3 aDOT) had a boom week with Allen Lazard out of the lineup. Just like most everyone else, he benefits massively when the passing volume jumps up. Instead of one or two deep shots per game, all of the sudden it’s four or five, and one or two are bound to hit as they did on Sunday. MVS is a playable WR4 going forward, though he’s still going to be very streaky and should be benched in projected positive scripts
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were on the victorious side of the NFC North battle, and they leaned more balanced, throwing at an average 56 percent rate in the game. This is who Minnesota is in neutral or slightly positive scripts, but they will swing one way or another in very negative/positive script situations.
Kirk Cousins (10.7 YPA) was fantastic in Week 11, throwing for 373 yards and a 3:0 TD/INT against a very good Green Bay defense. Because he’s not a sexy player, Captain Kirk will never get the fantasy love he deserves, but he’s a borderline QB1/2 who gets it done regardless.
Dalvin Cook (76% snaps, 26 touches, 4 targets) couldn’t find much efficiency as a rusher (23/88/1) but he did find the end zone while adding 3/29/0 through the air in a 20.7 PPR point performance. Cook is a talented 20-30 weekly touches workhorse who is a clear top-five RB1.
Justin Jefferson (8/169/2, 30% target share, 14.6 aDOT) went nuclear for the second week in a row, against another tough defense, and he’s completely unguardable right now. The only wide receivers I’d rather have on my fantasy team are Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams… Jefferson will be in Canton one day if he stays healthy.
Adam Thielen (8/82/1, 30% target share, 11.0 aDOT) also did his part despite being overshadowed, and he’s a stud WR2 in his own right, even at the age of 31.
Tyler Conklin (3/35/0, 80% snaps, 12% target share, 7.3 aDOT) had a down game, but he was coming off of a 16.1 PPR points performance and it’s nice to have a tight end with a floor in the 6.5 fantasy points neighborhood. Conklin remains one of the more bankable TE2’s out there.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans once again proved that they aren’t afraid to air it out in negative scripts, as they passed at a 64.5% rate in their 40-29 loss to the Eagles. I still think that Sean Payton wants to run the ball plenty, but the defense has regressed as of late, making that impossible.
Trevor Siemian (5.2 YPA) went full Jameis Winston against Philly, throwing for 214 yards and a 4:2 TD/INT while completing just 22 of 41 passes. Gunslinger performances like this are great for fantasy purposes, but Sean Payton may not tolerate this much longer with Taysom Hill waiting in the wings. While Siemian has the job he’s a fine QB2/3 streamer who has shown a willingness to take chances.
Mark Ingram (72% snaps, 22 touches, 8 targets) had another big day with Alvin Kamara out for a second straight week, putting together 16/88/0 and 6/25/0 rushing and receiving lines respectively while proving that he can still excel as a lead back in the NFL. Unfortunately, Ingram did suffer a knee injury that could keep him out of the Thanksgiving game, and it’s looking like Alvin Kamara will also be out again. If both backs are indeed out, Tony Jones would be the next man up as a worthy low-end RB2.
Tre’Quan Smith (5/64/0, 25% target share, 10.2 aDOT) didn’t have a huge game but he operated as the alpha once again while drawing nine targets with an optimal aDOT. As long as Trevor Siemian can keep the job, Smith is trending towards achieving low-end WR3 status in a hurry.
Adam Trautman (5/58/1, 68% snaps, 22% target share, 4.8 aDOT) popped up for a big game and he’s now drawn at least six targets in three straight games. Trautman is a streamable low-end TE2 right now, but if he continues to be this involved I could see him becoming a dependable mid-range TE2 before long.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly put on an offensive clinic in Week 11, beating the Saints 40-29 at home while passing at an extremely low 35 percent rate in an effort to run the clock out. The crazy thing is, the Eagles have passed at that rate cumulatively over their last three games, and one of them wasn’t even a negative script. This team is committed to ground and pound in all situations right now.
Jalen Hurts continues to destroy on the ground, as he put an insane 18/69/3 on New Orleans as a rusher while adding 147 yards and a 0:0 TD/INT as a passer. Hurts is the QB1 overall on the season and it seems like the team is committed to him now, so I’m viewing him like an elite QB1 who would be a legitimate RB2 if he was a running back.
Miles Sanders (46% snaps, 16 touches, 0 targets) returned and racked up 16/94/0 rushing with zero catches. The snaps were down a bit because Sanders was benched for a period of time after fumbling early, but he won’t be a bell-cow. The way this ground game is trending up, Sanders has real potential to crush the rest of the way. The obstacle is Nick Sirianni and his love for Jordan Howard and Boston Scott. I think Sanders ends up seeing about 50 percent of the rush attempts week in and week out, but with the insane rushing volume and efficiency that should be enough to make him an RB2.
Jordan Howard (17% snaps, 10 touches, 0 targets) was super efficient again, rushing 10 times for 63 scoreless yards. He’s a straight line hit the hole and go type of runner, and while that normally isn’t a good thing, it is when you can run option plays with a quarterback like Jalen Hurts. I’m viewing Howard as a borderline RB3/4 who should be benched in games where Philly is a significant underdog.
Boston Scott (37% snaps, 8 touches, 2 targets) might be the passing game back, but he’s probably third in line for touches every week and he has the least juice of the group. I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him, but he should be rostered in deeper formats.
DeVonta Smith (4/61/0, 32% target share, 11.5 aDOT) cooled off a bit, but he’s playing at a very high level despite a poor passing volume environment because of his alpha status and rapport with Jalen Hurts. Smith remains a rock-solid WR3 capable of ceiling performances every week.
Dallas Goedert (5/62/0, 96% snaps, 42% target share, 7.0 aDOT) continues to rack up plenty of yardage and catches while being the other target dominator in Philadelphia. The Eagles run extremely often in the red zone, which unfortunately caps Goedert’s touchdown equity, but there are very few other tight ends who are likelier than him to go 5/60/0 on a weekly basis… he’s a surefire TE1.
San Francisco 49ers
With all of their studs back from injury or out of the dog house the 49ers offense is humming, and they crushed Jacksonville 30-10 in a decisive Week 11 victory. The pass rate was all the way down at 36.4%, and if they keep crushing teams like this we’ll see more of that. I think San Francisco will be run-heavy most weeks, but nowhere near that run-heavy.
Jimmy G (8.0 YPA) tossed for two touchdowns, 176 yards, and no picks on just 26 attempts. With the insane amount of elite talent around him, Garappolo should remain efficient despite being a glorified game manager. The issue is volume, which cannot be counted on unless San Francisco is a 3.5+ point underdog.
Jeff Wilson (58% snaps, 20 touches, 2 targets) carried the load but was extremely unlucky to finish with just 6.8 fantasy points with a huge amount of touches. I understand the frustration, but any back capable of that workload needs to be stashed even with Elijah Mitchell likely to return this week. Trey Sermon, Kyle Shanahan’s mortal enemy, even got some work after the game was way out of hand, but he’s still so far down the totem pole that I don’t feel the need to roster him.
Brandon Aiyuk (7/85/1, 41% target share, 7.1 aDOT) never should have been benched by the ever egotistical Kyle Shanahan, but he’s crushed for three weeks in a row since reprising his full-time role and needs to be considered a strong WR3 going forward.
Deebo Samuel totaled 16.4 PPR points despite catching just one pass for 15 yards because he decided to dominate as a running back this week, putting together an 8/79/1 rushing line. Running back, wide receiver, both, it doesn’t matter Deebo is a fantasy superstar WR1.
Speaking of fantasy superstars, George Kittle casually put 4/34/1 on Jacksonville in pretty much just the first half, and he’s obviously an elite top-tier option at the tight end position.
Seattle Seahawks
I figured that last week’s pathetic shutout performance was a blip with Russell Wilson back in the saddle, but I was wrong. Seattle put up just 13 points in a 23-13 loss to Arizona with most of them coming in garbage time. This offense is in big trouble, and despite the negative script they passed at a barely above average 61.2% rate due to terrible coaching. Expect a balanced approach going forward even though this should be a pass-heavy team.
Russell Wilson didn’t have a terrible day on the surface, throwing for 207 yards and a 0:0 TD/INT, but much of his production came in garbage time and it’s extremely concerning that he was only allowed to throw 26 passes. It feels weird to say, but I’m viewing Russ as just an upper-tier QB2 until something gives. I also fully expect him to be wearing another jersey next year, as Seattle’s front office and coaching staff just continue to let him down.
Alex Collins (37% snaps, 10 touches, 0 targets) is the “leader” of a brutal committee here, and the only other talented and potentially fantasy-viable running back, Rashaad Penny, is quite literally hurt every week. Collins is an uninspiring low-end RB3, but otherwise, I want nothing to do with this backfield now that Chris Carson is officially out for the season.
Tyler Lockett (4/115/0, 22% target share, 20.6 aDOT) had the only encouraging fantasy performance on the team. Lockett and Wilson have elite chemistry, but his aDOT has been monstrous as of late, which hints at major volatility. I’m valuing Lockett like a low floor, high ceiling WR2.
D.K. Metcalf (4/31/0, 35% target share, 15.0 aDOT) had another rough game, but he dominated targets and the sheer talent between he and Russell Wilson will win out in spite of bad coaching. I’m still valuing Metcalf like a low-end WR1.
My boy Gerald Everett (3/37/0, 17% target share, 6.3 aDOT) had a very mediocre game, but he still played on a whopping 86 percent of snaps while posting a solid target share. I maintain that he’s a very underrated TE2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs easily cruised to victory over a very poor Giants team on Monday night, and everyone rightly anticipated the result. Even in a negative script, Tampa passed at an above-average 64.5% rate. This is a team that mercilessly airs it out until they’re up by 30.
Tom Brady (6.7 YPA) piled up 307 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT in a routine performance, he remains a strong upper echelon QB1.
Leonard Fournette (59% snaps, 16 touches, 6 targets) saw “only” 16 touches and didn’t find the end zone in a floor game where he piled up 74 total yards and six catches. Lenny is still a strong RB2 with a massive role on an elite offense.
Chris Godwin (6/65/1, 13% target share, 4.8 aDOT) put up a casual 18.5 PPR points in a fairly average performance by his standards — he’s a stud high-end WR2. Copy and paste for Mike Evans, who went for 6/73/1 with a high 22 percent target share.
Rob Gronkowski (6/71/0, 59% snaps, 18% target share, 8.1 aDOT) returned in grand fashion while looking fully healthy, and I’m sold on him as a low-end TE1 with upside for more based on his elite touchdown equity.
Washington Football Team
The Football Team gutted out a gritty 27-21 road win over the Panthers in Week 11 while posting a minuscule, game script dictated 38.5% pass rate. If the defense keeps playing at a solid level I could see Washington leaning run-heavy, but I don’t think the defense is equipped to play well going forward without Chase Young, so I’m expecting balance.
Taylor Heinicke (9.4 YPA) played extremely well, throwing for 206 yards and a 3:0 TD/INT on just 22 attempts while chipping in 29 rushing yards. Heinicke has played well enough as of late to be back in the low-end QB2 /streamer conversation.
Antonio Gibson (49% snaps, 19 touches, 0 targets) needed just 19 carries to reach 95 yards rushing (5.0 YPC), but he was benched at one point for fumbling and still doesn’t have a passing game role. I’m valuing Gibson as a volatile RB2 who needs positive game scripts to excel.
Terry McLaurin (5/103/1, 35% target share, 21.9 aDOT) had his first big game since Week 7, and when he booms it’s almost always for 20+ fantasy points. Scary Terry is a volatile WR2 with an elite ceiling and a manageable floor.
Logan Thomas could finally be back this week from a long-term hamstring issue. When playing his full 99 percent snaps role, he’s an easy low-end TE1, but I wouldn’t expect that right off the bat.