The Blitz Week 10: NFC Edition
Insightful and actionable fantasy football statistics, utilization metrics, and outlooks for every relevant NFC player.
I had a thought while watching football this weekend that I want to share. As human beings, we’re naturally inclined to operate in a results-oriented manner rather than a process-oriented manner, and it gets us into trouble. Something in our brains causes extreme dissonance when results don’t go the way we wanted them to go. We can have the best process on the planet, but if the results don’t match up with our expectations, we lose our minds. While there’s no way to rewire our brains entirely to become numb to results, we must do our best to place more importance on the process.
In fantasy football (and in many other aspects of life) process is more important because it’s what we have control over. We’re not out on the field, we’re not coaching teams, we’re not making personnel decisions. We’re sitting at home sifting through mountains of information trying to predict how things are going to play out every week. Even if we do a great job (which I certainly think we do here) the results are never going to match up perfectly with what we predict, and buying into singular/weekly results too much is the worst thing you could ever do.
Results do matter — at times they can signal that your process is bad. If you keep predicting something over and over and the opposite happens… that’s a valid reason to rethink your process. However, if you’re putting in the work and you intuitively understand the fantasy football environment, most of the time your process is probably pretty good. The danger of being results-oriented manifests itself often in fantasy football because of weekly variance. I’m going to provide contrasting examples that illustrate this point.
On one side of things, if you’re in a deep league and/or play DFS and you didn’t have Gerald Everett on your radar last week in some capacity, you should rethink how you approach things. Everett is an elite athlete at the tight end position who has consistently been playing 75-85 percent of snaps on a Russell Wilson-led team. My process was to prioritize being higher than the market on Everett anywhere I could even though the results hadn’t really been there this season. I took that stance simply because the underlying signs pointed to a potential breakout. Everett was the best fantasy player on the Seahawks this week, catching all eight of his targets for 63 yards, and while most were surprised, I was not. I’m not saying this was a sure thing because it most certainly wasn’t, but a good process conveyed that this was very much within the range of reasonable outcomes.
Oppositely, if you were high on Cole Beasley this week, you were looking too much into his recent results. Beasley caught 18 balls in his last two games, but quality research would have told you that it was obvious that he did that because Dawson Knox was out due to injury. If you were more process-oriented, you would’ve realized that Beasley hasn’t done much in games where Knox has been active this season, and you could’ve avoided investing in a player whose results were about to fade away despite the fact that he was excellent in the two weeks prior.
An enlightening real football example is the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have one of the most talented and complete offenses in the NFL and they started off great, but suddenly they’ve lost three of their last four games. The Chargers offensive coaching staff has been extremely results-oriented, and that’s why they’ve cratered. Even though the offensive scheme has done a horrific job of optimizing talent all year long, no changes have taken place all because the results were there early on in the season. Joe Lombardi has a top-five NFL quarterback with freakish arm talent, and yet he consistently has Justin Herbert dumping balls down short in crowded areas of the field. As a result, the offense’s efficiency has become a real issue, which is almost unthinkable when you think about the personnel. If Lombardi or someone else correctly optimized the offensive scheme and recognized that Justin Herbert should be attacking aggressively sideline to sideline with his special arm talent, the losing streak would probably never have happened.
There needs to be a balance, but generally in life and in fantasy football, operating in a process-oriented manner will bring rewards over time if the process is backed up by intelligence and hard work. It’s tempting to chase results — our brain wants us to do that and the world around us wants us to do that, but the most successful people in every field got to the pinnacle because they had a better process than everyone else. They also believed in that process and didn’t deviate when the results didn’t match up. The next time you work your ass off and things don’t go as expected, examine your process, and if you can honestly say that your process was the result of hard work and a knowledgable perspective — don’t let it get to you, because the process pays off in the long run.
Arizona Cardinals
With Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins out again, the Cardinals got waxed 34-10 at home against a Panthers team that had really been struggling. The Colt McCoy feel-good story predictably ended and we saw Chris Streveler, who is legitimately a geek off the street, take over early in the second half. Needless to say, there’s not much to be gleaned from this game between the massive amount of injuries and the outlier game script.
I expect Kyler Murray back for Week 11, but the lingering ankle issue really dampens his fantasy outlook due to the lack of rushing. I’ll be viewing him as a low-end QB1 upon his return, but if he’s healthier than anticipated, he could fly up into the high-end of that range.
James Conner (82% snaps, 13 touches, 4 targets) scored 14.5 PPR points despite being largely game scripted out, and he remains a strong RB1 with Chase Edmonds out of the picture for the foreseeable future. As expected, Eno Benjamin didn’t do much, carrying six times for 22 yards (3.7 YPC) with zero targets on just 27 percent of snaps in a blowout… he’ll likely factor in even less in closer games.
The receiving metrics from Week 10 specifically are completely and utterly useless, but here’s how I’m valuing the pass catchers — DeAndre Hopkins is a middling WR2, Christian Kirk is a solid WR4, A.J. Green is an uninspiring WR5, Rondale Moore is also a WR5 capped by poor utilization, and Zach Ertz is a really solid TE2 on the upswing.
Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith got his ass handed to him in every facet of the game in his team’s pathetic 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Even in an extremely negative script, Atlanta passed at just a 54.7% rate, as they basically gave up. This team wants to be balanced and they’re proving that you can never count on them to post high pass rates.
Remember last week when I wrote the following in regards to Matt Ryan — “One week he’s an MVP and the next he looks like it’s time to retire?” Well, after he had the MVP week in Week 9, Week 10 was retirement week. Ryan (5.6 YPA) threw for just 117 yards and a 0:2 TD/INT in a truly atrocious performance… and for this to happen even in a major negative script… sheesh. Good luck trying to handicap Ryan week-to-week… he’s just a desperation streamer in my book.
Cordarrelle Patterson (28% snaps, 5 touches, 2 targets) suffered a semi-serious ankle injury that limited his involvement in the game. C-Patt’s status is up in the air for Thursday night football, and even if he plays I expect limitations. When healthy, he’s still a dynamic RB2.
Mike Davis (37% snaps, 4 touches, 0 targets) and Wayne Gallman (43% snaps, 16 touches, 2 targets) plodded around to no avail throughout the game, and neither is particularly intriguing going forward. Davis will get his 8-12 touches in most games, but efficiency issues cap his outlook as a low-end RB3. Gallman isn’t even second in line, so he should only be rostered in the deepest formats.
Kyle Pitts (4/60/0, 32% target share, 11.0 aDOT) wasn’t bad, but this was a disappointing stat line overall in a game where he was the unquestioned No. 1 receiving option in a negative script. Matt Ryan can play bad enough to limit Pitts’ production at any time, but he’s an elite talent who should get 7+ targets every week going forward, so he’s still my TE5 overall.
I don’t want anything to do with Russell Gage, Olimade Zaccheus, or whoever else is running wind sprints at receiver for Atlanta. Gage will have some 5/50/0 games, but there are just so many better options.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina unsurprisingly posted a minuscule 47.1% pass rate in their blowout win over Arizona. Even if this was a close game, the passing volume was never going to be there with PJ Walker and Cam Newton quarterbacking. With Newton at the helm going forward, expect a run-heavy attack with a lot of low aDOT passes to CMC.
Cam Newton played sparingly but found the end zone as both a runner and a passer. Newton will start going forward, and I’m viewing him like a solid QB2 right off the bat just due to his immense rushing touchdown equity. If we get any decent passing numbers on top of the rushing, Newton could squeak his way into the low-end QB1 range.
Christian McCaffery (59% snaps, 23 touches, 10 targets) is flat-out ridiculous. CMC went for 13/95/0 on the ground and 10/66/0 through the air in just three-quarters of action. Overall, he managed 26.1 fantasy points while narrowly missing two touchdowns when he was downed on the one. What I’m saying is — McCaffery could’ve dropped 40 PPR points in three quarters no problem. CMC is clearly the RB1 overall in terms of weekly projection, but Jonathan Taylor isn’t far behind and he’s much more durable.
D.J. Moore (4/24/0, 23% target share, 5.1 aDOT) didn’t do much, but the QB situation and game script were both outliers. I’m waiting to pass judgment until we see how Moore fares with Cam fully integrated. For now, I’m tentatively viewing him as a low-end WR2 who will need manufactured touches (screens, quick slants, etc.) to stay in that range.
Ironically, Robby Anderson (4/37/1, 20% target share, 3.2 aDOT) actually did something when everyone understandably expected nothing. Robby could have sporadic WR4/5 value if he meshes with Cam Newton, but I’m not excited about his outlook.
Chicago Bears
Bye week in Week 10. Justin Fields is approaching QB1 territory and the only thing that can stop him is Matt Nagy, who needs to allow him the freedom to scramble every week. We also saw signs of life in the passing game overall before the bye, and I’ll be watching to see if they can build on that further against Baltimore this week. Lastly, do not underestimate David Montgomery as an RB2 with RB1 upside now that he’s 100 percent.
Dallas Cowboys
I hope you got the impression last week that I wasn’t worried at all about Dallas coming into Week 10… because they put 43 points on Atlanta in a tour de force. The Cowboys dialed down the pass rate to 47.1% in Week 10 due to the script, but they aired it out extremely successfully throughout the first half. This is a balanced team in general, but genius OC Kellen Moore will continue to adapt his gameplan week-to-week depending on the opponent.
Dak Prescott (9.5 YPA) effortlessly shredded Atlanta for 296 yards, a 2:0 TD/INT, and a QB sneak rushing score. Arguably the MVP favorite right now, Dak is a locked-in top-five QB1 playing at an exceedingly high level.
Ezekiel Elliott (49% snaps, 18 touches, 3 targets) saw his workload dialed down a bit in the blowout, but two touchdowns saved the day amidst poor efficiency (2.9 YPC). Atlanta has been stingy in terms of rushing yardage, however, so this was nothing to worry about. Zeke still getting there despite the inefficiency is a testament to his elite role in one of the league’s most bankable offenses — he’s a top-five RB1.
Tony Pollard (42% snaps, 17 touches, 7 targets) saw his role expand in the blowout as he racked up 11/42/0 on the ground and 6/56/0 through the air. A touchdown would’ve resulted in a huge day, but he still racked up 15.8 fantasy points. The young stud remains a solid RB3 with league-winning handcuff upside.
CeeDee Lamb (7/106/2, 24% target share, 2.9 aDOT) exploded, and I’m going to tell you right now… it won’t be the last time. With Michael Gallup back in the fold, Lamb can once again operate from the slot, where he’s unstoppable as an easy WR1.
Amari Cooper (4/51/0, 12% target share, 8.3 aDOT) was quieter, and unlike CeeDee Lamb, he’s hurt a bit by Gallup’s return. Lamb is going to command a ton of targets in the slot and Gallup will be very involved on the outside along with Coop, so there’s just not as much target equity for him now. It’s hardly a death sentence though, and Cooper is still a solid WR2.
The aforementioned Gallup (3/42/0, 53% snaps, 15% target share, 11.2 aDOT) was eased in during his first game back from a severe calf injury, but he looked like himself and he’ll undoubtedly be a big part of things here. I want to stay above the market him and am valuing him like a low-end WR3 going forward.
Dalton Schultz (1/14/0, 66% snaps, 6% target share, 12.5 aDOT) also takes a bit of a hit in terms of target equity, but he’s still in a great position to provide low-end TE1 value in the prolific Dallas offense.
Detroit Lions
This game is going to give me PTSD flashbacks for some time, so I can only talk so much about what I saw on that fateful day. In a close game, Detroit passed at a microscopic 42.7% rate because Jared Goff was playing at a grade school level. Goff’s ineptitude and Detroit’s propensity to fall behind clash in terms of play-calling, but they usually lean at least a little pass-heavy.
Jared Goff (4.6 YPA) was an absolute embarrassment — 4.6 yards per attempt is impossibly bad, but he also managed just 114 passing yards and a 0:0 TD/INT. If the Steelers didn’t drop multiple picks in this one we’d be looking at a Nathan Peterman Esque box score. Needless to say, Goff is a fantasy liability and he weighs this whole offense down.
The Goff tilt was just the tip of the iceberg, however, as D’Andre Swift carried 33 times (yes really) for 130 yards while catching 3 balls for three yards, and still didn’t find the end zone… because Godwin Igwebuike (who?) and Jermar Jefferson combined for five carries total and BOTH FOUND THE ENDZONE. You can’t make this stuff up, but tilt aside, Swift is still an easy low-end RB1 with *checks notes* 35 touch upside.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (4/61/0, 26% target share, 8.0 aDOT) is a solid high floor, low upside WR5 in PPR formats, but ideally, he’s more of an emergency option than anything else.
T.J. Hockenson had just one target and didn’t catch a single pass because, well, he plays on the Lions with Jared Goff. Hockenson has been hot and cold all year long and like Kyle Pitts, he’s a very talented tight end who should hog targets, but often does not. The ups and downs are frustrating, but Hockenson is still averaging 11.9 PPR points, good for seventh-best in the NFL. I have him as my TE6 behind Pitts and ahead of Mike Gesicki.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay’s 54.3% Week 10 pass rate was the result of Seattle’s offense ineptitude on the other side of things, but it’s not uncommon for the Pack. Green Bay’s defense has been the NFL’s best over the last few weeks, allowing just 11.3 points per game in Weeks 8-10, so we’ve seen them just run down the clock for most of the second half. The defense can’t keep up that level of play, but they are good enough to suppress volume all season long, unfortunately.
Aaron Rodgers (7.9 YPA) threw for 292 yards and a 0:1 TD/INT. For the first time since Week 1, Rodgers didn’t perform well fantasy-wise, and as usual, the game script didn’t dictate a high pass rate. Regardless, nine times out of 10 Rodgers is efficient enough to overcome volume hurdles, and he remains an easy low-end QB1.
A.J. Dillon (49% snaps, 23 touches, 2 targets) led the backfield after Aaron Jones exited around the midway point with an MCL issue that is expected to keep him out for a few weeks. In relief, Dillon accumulated 128 total yards, two catches, and two touchdowns, good for 26.8 PPR points. The young stud is about to go nuts as a no-brainer RB1 while Jones is out, and this is precisely why you draft talented “backups” with RB3 standalone value and RB1 upside.
Davante Adams (7/78/0, 31% target share, 5.1 aDOT) had one of his floor games, going for “just” 14.8 PPR points. Adams and Rodgers are as locked-in as ever, but positive game script has limited the star wideout’s second-half production, and Green Bay is also running a lot more in the red zone in 2021. All of that is to say that Adams is no longer utterly dominant, but he is still my WR2 overall, and if the defense slips up even a little bit, he’d be a big beneficiary.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (66% snaps) had a trademark game, catching exactly one of two targets (6% share) for 41 yards to along with a massive 33.0 aDOT. MVS is a boom/bust WR5 far more likely to bust on a weekly basis with pass volume down in the dumps.
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota passed at a 54.2% rate in Week 10’s 27-20 win over the Chargers. Mike Zimmer is always going to be conservative in the second half if he has a lead over a good team, but the defense isn’t going to put them in that position every week — this is a fairly balanced offense.
Kirk Cousins (7.9 YPA) did his thing, throwing for 294 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT. This is why Cousins is a high-end QB2, he has these types of games fairly often. The ceiling isn’t sexy, but he gets it done more often than not.
Dalvin Cook (82% snaps, 27 touches, 5 targets) got a true workhorse load in this one, carrying 24 times for 94 yards and a touchdown while catching three passes. Cook will continue to rack up touches as a top-five RB1, and it was great to see him playing well ahead of Alexander Mattison on pass downs again.
Justin Jefferson (9/143/0, 32% snaps, 11.6 aDOT) did what superstars do — dominate regardless of how tough the matchup is, and the Chargers are a TOUGH matchup for wideouts. More touchdowns would be nice (one TD in his last six games), but JJ is simply on another level as a talent, so he’s an easy top 10 WR1.
Adam Thielen (5/65/0, 21% target share, 8.4 aDOT) was solid, though he had a seemingly rare game without a touchdown reception. The trustworthy vet remains a shoo-in WR2.
Tyler Conklin (3/11/2, 85% snaps, 15% target share, 10.0 aDOT) ran hot on touchdowns, but his role is very bankable, and he was due to score. Conklin is one of my favorite weekly TE2 bets because he has a nice floor and quality upside.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is surprisingly sticking with Trevor Siemian and they allowed him to air it out in a negative script to the tune of a 65.6% pass rate. We don’t have a large enough sample size to know for sure, but it does seem like this team could be somewhat balanced going forward after they were very run-heavy early on.
Siemian (8.5 YPA) played very well, throwing for 298 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT with a respectable 8.3 aDOT. I’m definitely not ready to trust him as a fantasy option yet, but this is a start. More importantly, the offense’s outlook as a whole improves if he’s a competent passer.
Mark Ingram (85% snaps, 18 touches, 8 targets) valiantly filled in for Alvin Kamara (minor knee issue), putting together a 14/47/1 rushing line and a 4/61/0 receiving day in the loss to Tennessee. Ty Montgomery got banged up early, which all but guaranteed that Ingram would see every snap, but to his credit, he did look capable in the passing game. Alvin Kamara might be back this week, and if he is, Ingram goes back into the RB3 bucket with a 10-15 weekly touches projection. If not, he’s a strong RB2.
Kamara’s outlook is much improved now that it looks like Trevor Siemian is going to remain the starter, as he targets his backs frequently unlike Taysom Hill. I’m expecting 10-15 carries and 6-10 targets every week for Kamara, who is now looking like a bankable top-eight RB1.
Tre’Quan Smith (4/44/1, 91% snaps, 21% target share, 6.1 aDOT) is emerging as the No. 1 wideout in New Orleans after his second straight good game. Smith is leading the group in playing time and routes run and it also looks like Trevor Siemian trusts him more than anyone else. I want to be ahead of the market on Smith, so I’m already valuing him like a WR4.
New York Giants
Bye week in Week 10. Saquon Barkley is finally back and so is everyone else besides Sterling Shepard, who looks to be very questionable for Week 11. Daniel Jones definitely has a chance to finish the season strong as Giants skill position players get healthy. If Shepard is out this week, Kadarius Toney is off the injury report and he could have a big game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts (7.7 YPA) threw for 178 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT while chipping his usual 14/53/0 on the ground. He’s quietly played better real-life football as of late and it now looks like he’s safe from being benched for the time being. Every time Hurts takes the field he’s a no-brainer QB1 due to his ridiculous rushing production.
Boston Scott (31% snaps, 13 touches, 2 targets), Jordan Howard, and Kenny Gainwell (31% snaps, 3 touches, 1 target) formed a committee once again. Scott (11/81/0) and Howard (12/83/0) ran all over Denver in Week 10, but the word around town is that Miles Sanders is going to start against the Saints this week in his return from an ankle injury.
It’s very hard to predict what the workload distribution is going to be like with Nick Sirianni in charge, but I expect a three-way committee with Sanders getting most of the work, Howard vulturing goal-line touches, and Scott operating as a change of pace back. In other words, it’s probably going to suck, but there is still a chance that Sanders gets enough work to be an RB2 going forward with RB3 being his floor. As for Howard and Scott, I don’t want anything to do with either of them, and Gainwell is completely buried.
DeVonta Smith's (4/66/2, 27% target share, 16.3 aDOT) alpha status is finally paying off with positive touchdown regression kicking in over the last two weeks. The overall pass volume here still threatens his outlook as a strong WR3, but he’s clearly making a leap and I’m not going to say bad things about a No. 1 receiver thriving.
Dallas Goedert (2/28/0, 9% target share, 10.5 aDOT) had his first poor game in a while, but the Broncos shut down tight ends every week so I could care less. Goedert is still a locked-in TE1 with elite weekly upside.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners convincingly smashed the Rams 31-10 on Monday night football and passed at an unbelievably low 31.3% clip as a result. Any time San Francisco jumps out to a big lead, it’s ground and pound time. In neutral scripts, they lean slightly run-heavy, and in positive scripts slightly pass-heavy. Kyle Shanahan knows he can’t drop back Jimmy G 40 times because he’s not good enough.
Jimmy Garappolo (9.6 YPA) didn’t do a whole lot, be still ended up throwing for 182 yards and a 2:0 TD/INT largely thanks to Deebo Samuel’s insane YAC ability. I’m not interested in him as a fantasy option unless he’s in a pristine spot and I need a streamer.
Elijah Mitchell (53% snaps, 27 touches, 0 targets) broke his finger while toting the rock 27 times for 91 scoreless yards in the blowout win. Mitchell had minor surgery and might play this week, but if he doesn’t suit up it’ll be the Jeff Wilson (32% snaps, 10 touches, 0 targets) show. Mitchell is pretty locked in as the lead back here when healthy, but Wilson could make up a bit of ground this week if he smashes with Mitchell out. Wilson is an RB4/upside stash while Mitchell is a solid RB2.
Deebo Samuel (5/97/1, 26% target share, 8.2 aDOT) doesn’t seem to care that Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are back in the mix. Samuel is absolutely flourishing right now, and while I disagree with the way Kyle Shanahan has handled a lot of things this season, he consistently puts Samuel in a position to succeed. The after the catch maestro is a low-end WR1 even with more target competition.
Brandon Aiyuk (3/26/0, 90% snaps, 21% target share, 4.0 aDOT) didn’t have a great game, but he was victimized by low pass volume, as Jimmy G attempted just 19 passes in the blowout. The important thing is that he’s maintaining his full-time player status while posting excellent target shares. Aiyuk is a low-end WR3 going forward.
George Kittle (5/50/1, 37% target share, 6.4 aDOT) caught another rare touchdown while dominating targets once again. The knock on him has always been his inability to score, so it’s been great to see him find the end zone in each of his last two outings. Kittle is a top-five option at the position, and if he keeps scoring touchdowns he might just break into the top tier with Travis Kelce.
Seattle Seahawks
I’m not sure if this was a case of Russell Wilson still being hurt, the offensive line just being that bad, or Green Bay’s defense being just that good, but either way, it was a horrific offensive performance from a Seattle team that couldn’t muster a single point in a 17-0 loss at Lambeau Field. Unsurprisingly, they passed at a high 72.9% clip in the game while trying to come back.
Pete Carroll is always moronically advocating for the run game, even with Russ at his disposal, but even he is going to have to call pass-heavy games with the team sitting at 3-6 and Russell Wilson on the verge of demanding out.
Wilson (4.0 YPA) played the worst game I’ve ever seen him play, throwing for just 161 yards and a 0:2 TD/INT while chipping in 32 rushing yards. As I mentioned above, I don’t know what to make of this, but because Russ came back ahead of schedule from a torn finger ligament, I’m assuming he wasn’t fully healthy. For now, Mr. Unlimited should be cautiously approached as a low-end QB1 until we see better results.
Alex Collins (49% snaps, 11 touches, 1 target) rushed for 41 yards on 10 carries, but he was mostly game scripted out. Rumors started to swirl that Chris Carson was on his way back soon last week, but with Seattle, you always need to take injury news with a major grain of salt, and I’m glad I did because Carson still isn’t close to practicing. Collins is a middling RB3 until/if Carson makes his way back.
D.K. Metcalf (3/26/0, 24% target share, 14.0 aDOT) had optimal usage despite poor results. It’s just a matter of time until Metcalf explodes with Russ back, and I’m still viewing him as a surefire WR1.
Tyler Lockett (2/23/0, 24% target share, 22.9 aDOT) is in the same boat as Metcalf, though his floor and ceiling aren’t on the same level. I’m viewing Lockett like a rock-solid WR2 the rest of the way. The target share is really condensed between the two wideouts in Seattle, so there are very few paths to failure.
I’ve been Gerald Everett’s (8/63/0, 75% snaps, 24% target share, 2.9 aDOT) biggest fan all season long, and in his first game with Russell Wilson finally, back, he made me look great. It’s simple, Everett is a great athlete running a ton of routes with a hall of fame QB throwing to him. The market is still too low on him, as he’s a really solid TE2 with upside in my book.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa sleepwalked through a 29-19 loss to the Washington Football team, and their decimated secondary continues to have issues. The only time the Bucs don’t throw at will is when they get big leads, so it was no surprise to see them air it out at a 72.3% clip in Week 10.
Tom Brady (6.5 YPA) looked out of sorts in this one, throwing for 220 yards and a 2:2 TD/INT. Only 2.9% of Brady’s throws were 20+ yards down the field, and this was just an atypical game for him overall. I’m not changing my stance on Brady being a top-five fantasy QB after one bad game.
Leonard Fournette (65% snaps, 19 touches, 9 targets) continues to dominate work here, and he compiled 92 total yards to go along with eight catches in the game. Uncle Lenny is still an easy high-end RB2 with ludicrous utilization in a prolific offense.
Chris Godwin (7/57/0, 24% target share, 4.4 aDOT) is lowkey one of the toughest players in the NFL, and he played through another semi-serious foot issue in this one. Godwin was limited in practice on Thursday so the injury could linger for a bit. Even so, he’s a clear-cut high-end WR2 with an excellent floor/ceiling combination.
Mike Evans (2/62/1, 9% target share, 14.0 aDOT) did absolutely nothing in the first half and was targeted just three times all game. He made up for it with a long touchdown, but Evans is a volatile player who can have some really down weeks. Regardless, he’s a stud high-end WR2 who is a threat to score twice every week.
Rob Gronkowski should be back this week after nursing a punctured lung and broken ribs for many weeks. If Gronk is a full-go, he’s right on the TE1/2 borderline.
Washington Football Team
The Football Team got a feel-good 29-19 home win against arguably the best team in the NFL in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In order to preserve the lead, they passed at a below-average 52.1% rate. With the defense playing better, I expect a balanced approach moving forward.
Taylor Heinicke (8.0 YPA) was solid in the win, completing 26 of 32 passes for 256 yards and a 1:0 TD/INT. Unfortunately, he mustered just 15 rushing yards so it was a very mediocre fantasy performance. Heinicke isn’t a worthy starter in one-QB formats.
Antonio Gibson shockingly, and I mean SHOCKINGLY carried 24 times in the game for 64 yards and two touchdowns en route to 21.8 PPR points. In arguably the toughest matchup for early down backs, Gibson came through, and perhaps he can salvage his season with a big finish. It was a major positive that he didn’t lose work to Jarret Patterson on the early downs as well. Gibson is still limited to around two catches per game, but he’s a solid RB2.
J.D. McKissic (38% snaps, 6 touches, 4 targets) was the one game-scripted out for a change as a result of the team’s big lead; he remains a low-end RB3 in PPR formats who thrives in the passing game and should only be started in games where the Football Team is an underdog.
Terry McLaurin (6/59/0, 25% target share, 7.3 aDOT) dominated targets and had a big first half, but the game script resulted in passing volume disappearing in the second half, so it was a mediocre game. Scary Terry is a strong WR2 despite a less than ideal offensive environment, as there aren’t too many elite talents who dominate targets like this.
Logan Thomas is taking much longer than expected to return from a lingering hamstring issue, and it doesn't look like he’ll be back for Week 11. Whenever he does make it back, Thomas is a rock-solid low-end TE1.