The Blitz Week 10: AFC Edition
Insightful and actionable fantasy football statistics, utilization metrics, and outlooks for every relevant AFC player.
The AFC edition of The Blitz is free to read for all subscribers this week only. If you enjoy the content please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Paid subscribers have access to premium analysis covering every fantasy-relevant player every week for just $5.99/month or $60/year.
I had a thought while watching football this weekend that I want to share. As human beings, we’re naturally inclined to operate in a results-oriented manner rather than a process-oriented manner, and it gets us into trouble. Something in our brains causes extreme dissonance when results don’t go the way we wanted them to go. We can have the best process on the planet, but if the results don’t match up with our expectations, we lose our minds. While there’s no way to rewire our brains entirely to become numb to results, we must do our best to place more importance on the process.
In fantasy football (and in many other aspects of life) process is more important because it’s what we have control over. We’re not out on the field, we’re not coaching teams, we’re not making personnel decisions. We’re sitting at home sifting through mountains of information trying to predict how things are going to play out every week. Even if we do a great job (which I certainly think we do here) the results are never going to match up perfectly with what we predict, and buying into singular/weekly results too much is the worst thing you could ever do.
Results do matter — at times they can signal that your process is bad. If you keep predicting something over and over and the opposite happens… that’s a valid reason to rethink your process. However, if you’re putting in the work and you intuitively understand the fantasy football environment, most of the time your process is probably pretty good. The danger of being results-oriented manifests itself often in fantasy football because of weekly variance. I’m going to provide contrasting examples that illustrate this point.
On one side of things, if you’re in a deep league and/or play DFS and you didn’t have Gerald Everett on your radar last week in some capacity, you should rethink how you approach things. Everett is an elite athlete at the tight end position who has consistently been playing 75-85 percent of snaps on a Russell Wilson-led team. My process was to prioritize being higher than the market on Everett anywhere I could even though the results hadn’t really been there this season. I took that stance simply because the underlying signs pointed to a potential breakout. Everett was the best fantasy player on the Seahawks this week, catching all eight of his targets for 63 yards, and while most were surprised, I was not. I’m not saying this was a sure thing because it most certainly wasn’t, but a good process conveyed that this was very much within the range of reasonable outcomes.
Oppositely, if you were high on Cole Beasley this week, you were looking too much into his recent results. Beasley caught 18 balls in his last two games, but quality research would have told you that it was obvious that he did that because Dawson Knox was out due to injury. If you were more process-oriented, you would’ve realized that Beasley hasn’t done much in games where Knox has been active this season, and you could’ve avoided investing in a player whose results were about to fade away despite the fact that he was excellent in the two weeks prior.
An enlightening real football example is the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have one of the most talented and complete offenses in the NFL and they started off great, but suddenly they’ve lost three of their last four games. The Chargers offensive coaching staff has been extremely results-oriented, and that’s why they’ve cratered. Even though the offensive scheme has done a horrific job of optimizing talent all year long, no changes have taken place all because the results were there early on in the season. Joe Lombardi has a top-five NFL quarterback with freakish arm talent, and yet he consistently has Justin Herbert dumping balls down short in crowded areas of the field. As a result, the offense’s efficiency has become a real issue, which is almost unthinkable when you think about the personnel. If Lombardi or someone else correctly optimized the offensive scheme and recognized that Justin Herbert should be attacking aggressively sideline to sideline with his special arm talent, the losing streak would probably never have happened.
There needs to be a balance, but generally in life and in fantasy football, operating in a process-oriented manner will bring rewards over time if the process is backed up by intelligence and hard work. It’s tempting to chase results — our brain wants us to do that and the world around us wants us to do that, but the most successful people in every field got to the pinnacle because they had a better process than everyone else. They also believed in that process and didn’t deviate when the results didn’t match up. The next time you work your ass off and things don’t go as expected, examine your process, and if you can honestly say that your process was the result of hard work and a knowledgable perspective — don’t let it get to you, because the process pays off in the long run.
Baltimore Ravens
I discouraged panic after Baltimore went super run-heavy last week, and sure enough, they returned to being a pass-first team in Week 10, throwing at a 67.1% rate. The Ravens will remain pass-heavy outside of very positive scripts.
Lamar Jackson (5.5 YPA) needed 43 attempts to throw for 238 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT in an inefficient performance; he also added 9/39/0 on the ground, of course. Jackson posted by far his lowest aDOT of the season (7.1) against a Miami defense with elite corners and safeties, but the matchup dictated that for the most part, and I expect him to get back to chucking it. Lamar is my overall QB1 right now.
Dusty Devonta Freeman (58% snaps, 13 touches, 4 targets) managed just 3.5 yards per carry against an awful Miami run defense, though he did catch three passes for 23 yards. Freeman remains a juice-less low-end RB3 elevated by his offensive environment.
Le’Veon Bell, who never should’ve been signed in the first place, was finally cut this week, and it makes one wonder if the team realized that they need Ty’Son Williams involved after being humbled with multiple losses lately. I would highly recommend picking him up and seeing what happens.
Marquise Brown (6/37/0, 33% target share, 7.8 aDOT) had a mediocre game, but his alpha/WR1 utilization continued as he racked up 13 targets. Brown is an explosive borderline WR1/2 who is STILL underrated.
Rashod Bateman (6/80/0, 55% snaps, 20% target share, 7.4 aDOT) established his dominance over washed Sammy Watkins (1/7/0, 32% snaps, 8% target share, 21.3 aDOT), who laughably didn’t even attempt to catch a very catchable touchdown pass and was subsequently benched. Watkins is done, and while Bateman isn’t up in the ideal 70%+ snaps range, he commands targets when he’s out there. I’m immediately viewing Bateman as a high-end WR4 with WR3 upside.
Mark Andrews (6/63/1, 20% target share, 7.5 aDOT) did what he does; the stud tight end is a locked-in top-five option at the position.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills put it on the lowly Jets, hence a 55.6% pass rate. It was nice to see the passing game showcase efficiency, but the quality of the opponent must be considered here.
Josh Allen shredded the Jets for 366 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT while rushing for just three yards. This was Allen at his best, as he relentlessly attacked New York deep and magically completed 75 percent of his passes despite a deep 12.9 aDOT. I want to jump back in all the way, but until we see this against a competent opponent I’m going to remain only cautiously optimistic.
Zack Moss (48% snaps, 7 touches, 0 targets) barely made it out of concussion protocol to play and he didn’t see his usual workload. It’s impossible to know whether or not this was due to injury concerns, but Moss does need to be downgraded into RB4 range despite the fact that he’s the best option in this backfield.
Devin Singletary (38% snaps, 8 touches, 1 target) factored in for a portion of the work, but he doesn’t have any real upside in this backfield as a mediocre change of pace back. Singletary is a low-end RB4 at best. Matt Breida (14% snaps, 6 touches, 3 targets) interestingly worked in while leading Buffalo backs in targets, and it wasn’t just because of the blowout… he was in the game early. Any continued Breida involvement could make this backfield an avoidable three-way committee.
Stefon Diggs (8/162/1, 46% target share, 16.0 aDOT) FINALLY went off. Between his performance and the high aDOT attack overall, this was vintage 2020 Buffalo. Diggs is a rock-solid WR1 and he’s now shown us the top five overall upside that was always there… don’t underestimate the chances of him going completely nuclear in the second half.
Emmanuel Sanders (2/27/0, 7% target share, 11.0 aDOT) pretty much sat back and watched the Diggs show, but he’s still a low-end WR3 with an amazing role in this offense (25 routes in Week 10, four less than Diggs). If the high aDOT efficiency translates going forward, Sanders would be a huge beneficiary.
Cole Beasley (2/15/0, 16% snaps, 1.0 aDOT) predictably saw his utilization crater with Dawson Knox back in the fold, though the extent of his usage drop-off was pretty jarring. The Bills don’t want to run a ton of three-wide sets anymore, with occasional opponent-specific exceptions. Right now I’m viewing Beasley as a boom/bust WR4, and I’m not comfortable starting him. Low aDOT guys need plenty of opportunities to be good fantasy assets due to the lack of big plays, and Beasley is the definition of a low aDOT guy.
Dawson Knox (1/17/0, 85% snaps, 4% target share, 2.0 aDOT) was mysteriously quiet despite excellent utilization. I’m willing to look past one dud in his first game from injury — the resume and role still command low-end TE1 treatment.
Cincinnati Bengals
Bye week in Week 10. Nothing changing here, but Tee Higgins is going to take off and become a stud WR2 very soon. Also, while I’m valuing him as a solid RB1 regardless, Joe Mixon ran a little hot before the bye and I still think he’s more of a low-end RB1 than a high-end one.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns got absolutely blown out 45-7 on the road at New England and there’s nothing to read into play-calling-wise due to injuries.
Baker Mayfield suffered a minor knee injury and was forced out of the game early. Case Keenum relieved him and played the game manager role in the blowout. I’m still somewhat high on Baker now that Odell is gone, but he’s dealing with some serious injuries that cloud his outlook. For now, I’m valuing Mayfield like a low-end QB2 with real upside in games where Cleveland is an underdog.
D’Ernest Johnson (88% snaps, 26 touches, 8 targets) compiled a 19/99/0 rushing line and a 7/58/0 receiving line while once again proving that A) He’s a slightly above average NFL running back and B) The Browns system elevates any running back that gets touches. Johnson will eventually fade away entirely when both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are healthy. Chubb should be back this week and Hunt is likely to return either this week or next week.
The outlier blowout and injury situation makes receiver box scores fairly useless, but let’s touch on a few things. Donovan Peoples-Jones caught just one of five targets for five yards, highlighting the dangerous volatile nature of deep threat receivers. Peoples-Jones is still a low-end WR4 on the rise, but don’t count on any consistency.
Jarvis Landry (4/26/0) struggled again, but his best days are ahead of him as a borderline WR3/4. Landry is going to command targets, and eventually, that will turn into plenty of 6/60/0 ish games at the very least.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos unsurprisingly had a major letdown in a 30-13 loss to the Eagles after somehow beating the Cowboys last week, this is just who they are as a team. Denver once again showed a willingness to air it out in the negative script (67.1% pass rate), though that number would’ve been higher if Pat Shurmur (Covid) was calling plays.
Teddy Bridgewater (6.3 YPA) had a trademark Teddy B game, passing for 226 yards and a 0:0 TD/INT. Bridgewater doesn’t typically lose games for his team, but it’s even rarer that he plays well enough to be the reason that his team won… he’s just a separation streamer in favorable matchups.
Javonte Williams (57% snaps, 10 touches, 3 targets) balled out yet again on limited touches (6.0 YPC), but he was largely game scripted out while already sharing the load with Melvin Gordon (43% snaps, 10 touches, 4 targets), who also played well (5.0 YPC, 2 TD’s). Both players remain solid RB3’s with RB1 upside if the other were to go down to injury.
Jerry Jeudy (6/48/0, 78% snaps, 26% target share, 9.9 aDOT) dominated targets once again — he’s a clear high-end WR3 heading towards WR2 status. The route running savant is a perfect fit for Teddy Bridgewater, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he catches six balls per game the rest of the way.
Courtland Sutton (2/29/0, 9% target share, 11.0 aDOT) is in trouble. There are just too many mouths to feed here, and Jerry Jeudy is racking up a ton of targets. I’m now valuing Sutton like a low-end WR3 who can no longer be counted on for consistent production.
Noah Fant (5/59/0, 18% target share, 5.5 aDOT) returned from the Covid list and was solid, albeit in a dream matchup with the ideal script. Again, there are so many mouths to feed and Albert Okwuegbunam is also a major tight end threat in the red zone. I’m still lower than the market on Fant, as I have him in the mid to high-end TE2 range.
Houston Texans
Bye week in Week 10. Tyrod Taylor is a fringy low-end QB2/streamer, Brandin Cooks is a high-end WR3, and nobody else is anything. Expect this team’s effort level to crater as the sad tanking effort drags on.
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis remained a bit more balanced than anticipated in a mildly positive script, passing at a 56.5% rate in their 23-17 win over Jacksonville. I still think we see low 50 percent-ish pass rates in most neutral to positive scripts going forward.
Carson Wentz (5.3 YPA) was really bad against a poor Jacksonville defense, throwing for just 180 yards on 34 attempts with a seriously pathetic 4.9 aDOT. The coaching staff deserves some blame, but the former Eagles star has proven to be very hot and cold this season. I’m fine streaming Wentz as a low-end QB2 in plus matchups, but that’s it.
Jonathan Taylor (84% snaps, 27 touches, 8 targets) rushed for 21/116/1 with “only” 5.5 YPC, but more importantly, Frank Reich got the memo and targeted JT 8 times in the game. The utilization just keeps getting better on top of Taylor’s hall of fame caliber ability… he’s the easy overall RB1 and only CMC has an argument, though his durability leaves him a bit behind in my opinion.
Michael Pittman (5/71/0, 15% target share, 10.4 aDOT) is so very consistent. Even in a Carson Wentz clunker, he put up 12.1 PPR points… I’m not aware of anything that could impede his outlook as a borderline WR2/3 alpha the rest of the way.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville leaned slightly pass-heavy in their 23-17 loss at Indy, throwing on 61.3% of plays. The Jags prefer to be balanced, but they find themselves in negative scripts so often that 60-65 percent pass rates are inevitable.
Trevor Lawrence (4.6 YPA) was very bad as the YPA tells you, and he threw for just 164 yards and a 0:0 TD/INT while adding 5/33/0 on the ground. For Lawrence, it simply comes down to the fact that he’s not good enough (yet) to overcome the awful offensive environment around him. Lawrence’s receivers are bad, his offensive line is okay, and his coaches are downright awful. For that reason, he’s not on my radar at all in one-QB formats.
James Robinson (59% snaps, 17 touches, 5 targets) returned from his heel injury and balled out despite a tough matchup and a reduced workload, totaling 84 all-purpose yards and a score. Robinson is a talented three-down workhorse who remains an easy high-end RB2 now that he’s close to 100 percent.
Marvin Jones (2/35/0, 20% target share, 18.8 aDOT) is washed. Everything pointed to the veteran being a rock-solid WR3 after D.J. Chark (ankle) suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4, but it’s been a disaster. Jones has cleared 35 receiving yards only once in his last six games while finding the end zone just once in that period. It’s confounding considering that he’s averaging about seven targets per game with a decent aDOT, but this is a situation where the results speak for themselves — Jones is just a volatile WR4.
Laviska Shenault (3/15/0, 27% target share, 8.1 aDOT) isn’t washed at 23 years old, but he’s been criminally misused by this coaching staff and his fantasy value has absolutely cratered. The onetime trendy breakout pick has been abysmal since the team moved him to the outside in wake of D.J. Chark’s season-ending ankle injury, averaging 3.2 catches and 32.8 receiving yards per game dating back to Week 5. Laviska isn’t tall and he doesn’t have straight-line speed, so I don’t see him excelling on the outside any time soon… he’s just a WR5.
Jamal Agnew scored 13.9 fantasy points in unbelievable fashion last week. Agnew’s receiving line in the game was somehow 0/0/0 despite getting five targets, however, he rushed for 3/79/1 in the game. His methods aren’t always traditional, but he’s averaged 12 PPR PPG since getting the slot job in Week 5. This sounds absolutely insane, but Agnew might be the best fantasy receiver in this offense. I would still rank them Jones/Agnew/Shenault, but Agnew is a legit WR4/5 option in PPR formats.
Dan Arnold (5/69/0, 68% snaps, 27% target share, 6.1 aDOT) is the true WR1 in this offense, as he’s now led the team in receiving in four of five games. Trevor Lawrence loves targeting tight ends and Arnold is a plus athlete with good receiving ability, so I don’t see this train slowing down. He needs to find the end zone at some point to boast a ceiling, but the postman’s floor is elite at the tight end position, and he’s a super solid mid to high-end TE2 in my book.
Kansas City Chiefs
Well well well, look who’s back? Kansas City smoked Las Vegas 41-14 in primetime while looking like the Chiefs of old. Despite the positive script, KC aired it out at a very high 67.1% clip as we were used to seeing in past years. I don’t want to say that the offense is all the way back after one good game, but I’m very encouraged and lean towards thinking that the issues will be put behind them.
Patrick Mahomes (8.1 YPA) went nuts, passing for 406 yards and a 5:0 TD/INT on a whopping 50 attempts. Again, I don’t want to say that Mahomes is the overall QB1 again just yet, but I would bet on him being a top-five option at the position over the final eight games of the season.
Darrel Williams (59% snaps, 20 touches, 9 targets) went nuts through the air in his final game as the starter, compiling a 9/101/1 receiving line thanks in part to a lucky prayer ball touchdown. ‘The Mentor’ did his part, but he’s just a handcuff going forward with CEH set to return in Week 11. I’ll be cautiously viewing CEH as a mid-tier RB2 upon his return. The role is pristine if the offense is indeed back to form, but Edwards-Helaire is clearly a below-average NFL running back, so the ceiling is capped.
Tyreek Hill (7/83/2, 21% target share, 13.0 aDOT) got back on track in a big way and it was great to see him post an optimal aDOT. Hill is unguardable, and with the offense on the upswing, I’m valuing him like the WR3 overall behind only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams.
Travis Kelce (8/119/0, 21% target share, 5.3 aDOT) was able to eat in the short area game due to KC having success deep for the first time in a while. This was a vintage Kelce game, but the lack of red zone involvement continues to be an issue. Noah Gray inexplicably out-targeted him three to zero in that area of the field in Week 10, and Kelce has seen just two red zone targets in his last four games. The floor is incredible for the overall TE1, but the ceiling isn’t what it was in the past.
Andy Reid seemed to finally realize that Mecole Hardman sucks at football this week, as he played just 32 percent of the snaps in this game. I’m just happy I won’t have to hear any more Hardman propaganda, and yes, I need my flowers for calling this from the beginning, thank you very much.
Byron Pringle (62% snaps) usurped Hardman and posted a 4/46/1 line while running a strong 34 routes. Pringle is hardly a world-beater, but he’s better than Hardman and he could have some sporadic WR4/5 value if the playing time holds and the offense excels as a whole.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were on the other side of the blowout and passed at a prolific 72.6% rate in the negative script. Las Vegas is sixth in the NFL in overall pass rate (64 percent), and I don’t see that changing. Only positive scripts convince this team to pound the rock.
Derek Carr was solid per usual, throwing for 261 yards and a 2:1 TD/INT while adding 18 rushing yards. Carr is one of the better pocket passing fantasy quarterbacks, and I’m comfortable saying that he’s a high-end QB2 considering the consistency and volume.
Josh Jacobs (57% snaps, 12 touches, 5 targets) was mostly game scripted out while totaling just 36 scoreless yards, but he did play ahead of Kenyan Drake on passing downs again while catching five balls. Jacobs is extremely injury-prone, but he has a true three-down role along with the goal-line work, making him an easy RB2 when healthy.
Kenyan Drake (32% snaps, 6 touches, 3 targets) will catch two or three passes per game, but he doesn’t really have any standalone value. I do still like him a lot as a handcuff due to Josh Jacobs’ fragility, though.
Elite box scores continue to elude Darren Waller (4/24/0, 91% snaps, 21% target share, 6.7 aDOT) for the most part despite excellent usage week-to-week. Waller was coming off of a 7/92/0 game in Week 9 in which he got three red zone targets, however, so he’s not far off. It’s been a disappointing season, so I no longer have Waller in the first tier with Kelce. Instead, I have him in the Kittle/Andrews/Pitts tier just below… I keep saying it, but better days are ahead.
Bryan Edwards (3/88/1, 12% target share, 22.0 aDOT) caught a fairly long touchdown pass that contributed to a very good game, but it’s almost like someone cast a spell preventing him from getting more than four targets in any game, ever. Even with Henry Ruggs out of the picture, Edwards is just a boom/bust WR5 due to his inability to rack up targets.
Hunter Renfrow (7/46/1, 26% target share, 3.7 aDOT) had another excellent game, his second in a row since Henry Ruggs departed. I don’t want to get too excited here because Renfrow has been running really hot on touchdowns, but at the same time you can pretty much count on a floor of 5/45/0 every week, and the touchdowns are a nice bonus when they do come. I’m valuing the slot maestro like a low-end WR4 in PPR formats.
Los Angeles Chargers
I have a lot of thoughts in regards to the Chargers’ recent downturn, but I’ll try to be brief. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi came over from the Saints where he coordinated a dink and dunk system that catered to Drew Brees’ lack of arm strength. Instead of changing things up, Lombardi is employing a similar approach with Justin Herbert despite the fact that Herbert has all-time great arm talent.
Lombardi didn’t face scrutiny early on because the results (wins) were there, but now that the offense has regressed, everyone is realizing that the wealth of talent in LA is being squandered. This was a classic case of being results-oriented rather than process-oriented. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Lombardi is capable of installing a higher aDOT system, as it appears that he was more of a Sean Payton puppet than a smart football mind. I could be wrong, but that’s my read on this situation. I’m not optimistic that Lombardi can unlock the ceiling here.
The Bolts passed at an above-average 65.5% rate as usual in Week 10, and that’s one bright spot for the team. The passes aren’t optimized well, but there are plenty of them in almost every situation in addition to great pace. It’s frustrating because this passing game could be truly unstoppable if optimal route trees were instituted alongside the volume, pace, and talent.
Justin Herbert (5.7 YPA) was a victim of poor play-calling, as his terribly low 5.6 aDOT led to just 195 yards and a 1:1 TD/INT on 34 attempts. Herbert goes off script at times and makes unteachable plays that only he can a few others could make, but he’s held back by Joe Lombardi in a big way. He should be routinely posting aDOTs in the 9-12 range with his arm talent, but his aDOT on the season is just 7.5. Herbert is the QB7 overall because he and his weapons are just that good, but his ceiling is capped if the coaching doesn’t improve.
Austin Ekeler (71% snaps, 14 touches, 6 targets) is one of two players who is actually benefiting fantasy-wise from the poor coaching. Ekeler gets fed a ton of dump downs a la Alvin Kamara and he’s obviously extremely adept with the ball in his hands. Ekeler totaled “only” 14.9 PPR points in this game with 11/44/0 on the ground and 3/15/1 through the air, but he was robbed of a goal-line TD by the undeserving rookie back, Larry Rountree. Regardless, Ekeler has been the red zone back all year and he’s an elite RB1.
Keenan Allen (9/98/0, 34% target share, 9.2 aDOT) is the other player benefitting from the low aDOT attack, as he gets a massive amount of targets funneled his way. Justin Herbert trusts Allen with his life, and he’s a low-end WR1 with an extremely high floor.
Mike Williams (4/33/0, 19% target share, 1.7 aDOT) should sue Joe Lombardi after he posted a 1.7 aDOT (not a typo) in this game. I feel sick as I’m writing this because there’s absolutely no reason that should ever happen. Williams is a top-five contested-catch player in the NFL, and he’s being treated like Wes Welker… Coaching is crushing Big Mike’s fantasy value, and I’m downgrading him all the way down into low-end WR2 territory.
Jared Cook and Donald Parham are now cutting into each other’s production too much for either player to be a startable option.
Miami Dolphins
Jacoby Brissett started the game due to Tua’s injury concerns and suffered a minor knee injury. He“probably could have returned” according to Brian Flores, but instead, the team leaned on Tagovailoa (finger) to close out a 22-10 win at home against an overrated Baltimore Ravens squad. Tua (11.3 YPA) played very well in relief, needing only 14 attempts to rack up 158 yards while also rushing for a touchdown. Tua is a solid mid to low-end QB2 going forward and the offense will benefit from Brissett being off the field.
Myles Gaskin (61% snaps, 15 touches, 2 targets) averaged just 2.2 YPC (14/31/0 on the ground) and as bad as that is, it’s par for the course for him as of late. While Gaskin is nothing special as a runner, his offensive line is horrific. The ground game is bad and it won’t get better for Miami. Thankfully, Gaskin is the main receiving back despite the lack of impact in that area this week, though he’s just a low-end RB3 whose outlook takes a hit with Malcolm Brown set to return.
Jaylen Waddle (4/61/0, 25% target share, 14.2 aDOT) was solid if unspectacular, but his aDOT has been trending the right way and he’s easily the No. 1 in a high volume passing attack. Waddle is a second-half breakout candidate with Tua healthy, and I’m valuing him like a low-end WR3 with upside for more.
Mike Gesicki didn’t have a single catch despite getting seven targets. The stud tight end is still playing like a receiver and he had his usual encouraging utilization. Jacoby Brissett can make anyone look bad, and Gesicki is still a rock-solid TE1.
DeVante Parker is still a couple of weeks away from returning from IR, and he can’t be counted on to stay healthy the rest of the way. Will Fuller won’t be back this week, but he should be back in Week 12. Both players are very speculative WR4’s when playing a full complement of snaps.
New England Patriots
The Patriots dominated the Browns in every facet of the game in their 45-7 win in Week 10. The team is quietly trending way up as a whole, and the defense playing really well has necessitated low pass rates like their 45.2% mark last week.
On the flip side, Mac Jones (8.6 YPA) is slowly figuring things out, and he played the best game of his pro career in Week 10, going 19-for-23 with 198 yards and a 3:0 TD/INT. Jones made several impressive throws in the game and he looks to be an above-average starter long-term. For now, his fantasy value is still fairly low, however, as he simply won’t get enough pass attempts to compensate for the lack of rushing ability.
Rhamondre Stevenson (55% snaps, 24 touches, 5 targets) finally got a chance to lead this backfield and it was glorious. Those who smartly stashed Stevenson reaped the benefits of his 20/100/2 rushing performance that he capped off with four catches. All in all, Stevenson scored 27.4 fantasy points while proving that he can dominate at the NFL level.
So where do we go from here? The sensible thing would be for Bill Belichick to give Stevenson the starting role with Damien Harris factoring in occasionally, but as we’ve all come to know, there’s no predicting what Bill is going to do with this backfield. If you’re a Stevenson owner just do your best to read reports and hope for the best. I think a committee is the likeliest outcome here, unfortunately.
If Harris and Stevenson split things roughly 50/50 both would be RB3’s, and I’d prefer Stevenson due to his passing game involvement. Brandon Bolden is also likely to maintain a third-down role in some capacity all year long.
I want to give a major shootout to Jakobi Meyers (4/49/1, 16% targets share, 8.5 aDOT), who finally broke the NFL’s longest receptions without a touchdown streak on Sunday. Meyers never complained when plays were repeatedly drawn up for other players, and it was heartwarming to watch his teammates nearly dogpile him after the moment. Meyers is a rock-solid WR4 in PPR, but if he starts finding the end zone regularly now that the seal is broken, watch out.
Hunter Henry (4/37/2, 82% snaps, 16% target share, 8.8 aDOT) is an absolute touchdown magnet. The prized free-agent acquisition has now scored seven times in seven weeks, and only Tyler Higbee, Noah Fant, and Darren Waller have more red zone targets than Henry’s 11 in 2021. He’s clearly a high-end TE2 despite being touchdown-reliant.
New York Jets
The Jets have been getting eviscerated as of late, and they got down early in their embarrassing 45-17 loss at home to Buffalo in Week 10. Of course, getting down early means high pass rates, and Gang Green aired it out at a 68.6% rate in Week 10. Expect more of the same.
Turns out Mike White (5.7 YPA) isn’t the future after all (shocking, I know), as he played absolutely horribly, throwing for 251 yards and a gut-wrenching 0:4 TD/INT. White also completed just 55 percent of passes despite a minuscule 6.6 aDOT. He may continue to start for another week or two, but he has no future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco are both in play to start games sooner rather than later, with Flacco being the best option for Jets skill position players fantasy value. No Jets quarterback will be relevant in one-QB leagues in 2021.
Michael Carter (52% snaps, 20 touches, 6 targets) and Ty Johnson (32% snaps, 7 touches, 8 targets) were unfortunately joined by Tevin Coleman (22% snaps, 6 touches, 3 targets) in the backfield this week as the dusty vet returned from IR. Carter is still the lead back here by a comfortable margin and he continues to get goal-line work while piling up plenty of rushing and receiving yards — he’s a strong low-end RB2.
Coleman is irrelevant, and while Johnson is most harmed by the veteran’s return, he’s still a fine RB4/flex in PPR due to his receiving ability/role.
Corey Davis (5/93/0, 15% target share, 12.0 aDOT) came through with a really nice game despite facing tough coverage from Tre’Davious White. I’ve been high on Davis as a forgotten WR3 all year long, and this is why… he’s a really good player in a position to rack up targets on a team that throws a ton, it’s as simple as that.
Elijah Moore (3/44/1, 56% snaps, 13% target share, 13.2 aDOT) saw his routes drop way down from 37 to 25 but balled out anyway. This coaching staff is categorically insane for not making him a full-time player at this point. Regardless, we can’t control what they do, so Moore is just a WR4/5 dart throw every week with contingent WR3 upside if he ever does get his rightful full-time role.
Pittsburgh Steelers
This was quite possibly the worst football game I’ve ever watched, and that’s saying something. Jared Goff and Mason Rudolph fiercely competed to see who could play worse, and Goff won in the end. I’m not going to go into specifics both because I want to preserve my sanity, and because there’s nothing to be gleaned from a Mason Rudolph game when Ben Roethlisberger (Covid) will be back this week.
I do still want to touch on player value in Pittsburgh going forward — Big Ben is a desperation streamer, Najee Harris is an elite top-five RB1 with weekly 25-30 touch upside, Diontae Johnson is a stud high-end WR2 with one of the highest floors in fantasy football, Chase Claypool is a WR3 with very reachable talent-based WR2 upside, and Pat Freiermuth is a solid TE2 who has established himself as a big part of the offense.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans threw at a very low 50 percent rate in Week 10’s 23-21 victory over the Saints. It makes sense that the game plan was more run-heavy given Julio Jones’ (on IR for at least two more weeks) absence and the semi-positive script. The running game is absolutely awful here now that Derrick Henry is gone though, so there’s no way that we don’t see more balance going forward.
Ryan Tannehill (5.3 YPA) operated in a game manager role, completing 20 of 27 passes for 213 yards and a 1:0 TD/INT with a tiny 5.3 aDOT. Fortunately, Tannehill ran in a score, but he’s been a major fantasy disappointment this year. At least for the moment, there’s no reason to value him as anything higher than a middling to low-end QB2.
D’Onta Foreman (35% snaps, 13 touches, 2 targets), Adrian Peterson (33% snaps, 9 touches, 1 target), and Jeremy McNichols (27% snaps, 5 touches, 3 targets) continue to form one of the ugliest three-way RB committees in recent memory. None of the backs scored or did anything notable, save for maybe Foreman’s 2/48/0 receiving line.
D’Onta Foreman is hardly a great player, but he’s the best early-down option the team has and he also got somewhat involved as a receiver. I’m valuing him like a speculative RB4 with the most upside of the bunch. McNichols should continue to be the primary third-down back while mixing in for some carries, but he’s just a fringy PPR-specific RB4… think Nyheim Hines. With all due respect to one of the greatest ever, Adrian Peterson is beyond washed and I don’t even think he’s worth a roster spot at this point.
A.J. Brown (2/16/0, 15% target share, 12.8 aDOT) had a down game, but context matters. Brown was bracketed and shadowed by Marshon Lattimore all game in a low passing volume contest. It’s true that Brown will be the guy defenses key in on with Julio Jones out, but he’s good enough to explode every time out regardless, and he’s still an easy WR1 as the unquestioned alpha here.
Marcus Johnson received friendlier coverage and burned New Orleans for 5/100/0 (22% target share), but it’s hard to count on him going forward when he’s playing less than 60 percent of snaps and running just 18 routes. I want to see Johnson do it again before considering him as a fantasy option.